On being wrong

When forecasting, no one is ever exactly right. Instead, there are varying degrees and flavors of being wrong. Nobody likes to be wrong.

Kathryn Schulz has a great talk online titled "On being wrong" (linked below). At one point she asks a question of a few people in the front row:

"So let me ask you guys something ... How does it feel -- emotionally -- how does it feel to be wrong? [Audience responds] Dreadful. Thumbs down. Embarrassing.... thank you, these are great answers, but they're answers to a different question. You guys are answering the question: How does it feel to realize you're wrong? [Audience laughter] Realizing you're wrong can feel like all of that and a lot of other things, right? I mean it can be devastating, it can be revelatory, it can actually be quite funny.... But just being wrong doesn't feel like anything."

Forecasting requires a certain form of mental training that involves a strong sense of self awareness. Are you fooling yourself about what you think might happen? Is your intuition helping or hurting you? Are you justified in being self-confident? Or does it all come crashing down when you're surprised by the outcome?

Ultimately, one learns to make no-regrets decisions based on evidence and a dash of gut-feeling. It is a skill that I feel would help most people navigate through uncertainty in their daily lives. I'm hoping to explore this more over the coming year. Enjoy the video!