tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-73980911964189417062024-03-05T13:40:26.364-05:00The River SeersThomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.comBlogger188125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-74632960069467856392022-08-26T00:50:00.001-04:002022-08-26T00:53:55.939-04:00An Interview with Norm Crawford: Inventor of the First Computer Model of RiversThe tops of the curvaceous hills above <a href="http://www.stanford.edu/" target="_blank">Stanford University</a> look like someone caught in the middle of shaving. There are occasional patches of forest here and there, but the Open Space Preserves above the Portola Valley are mostly grasslands. Up close, one can stand in a single spot and see tall grass, lonely shrubs, lush ferns and twisted forest. Near the peaks, there are no flowing streams, but plenty of mud and moss in the shady areas. In places, the hiking trails have gouged away at the land, exposing rocks and soil. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-OyNulsJF07Q/TxOgnoZ7Q8I/AAAAAAAAE1o/UX-xxvVv8eA/s1600-h/1515446829_91d4ea6132_z%25255B7%25255D.jpg"><img alt="1515446829_91d4ea6132_z" border="0" height="484" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-_yV_mhX_Hds/TxOgoIiCgpI/AAAAAAAAE1w/IeotEUoVLeY/1515446829_91d4ea6132_z_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" style="background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" title="1515446829_91d4ea6132_z" width="644" /></a><br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/busybeingborn/1515446829/" target="_blank">The Windy Hill Open Space Preserve in the hills above Stanford University</a><br />
<a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-agY814AGLE0/TxOgoo16x7I/AAAAAAAAE14/Mr12I5tdrpo/s1600-h/1516325762_e49fd5175e_z%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img alt="1516325762_e49fd5175e_z" border="0" height="484" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-SbrOjJKvDhI/TxOgpcNzVsI/AAAAAAAAE2A/P0mOccRU97k/1516325762_e49fd5175e_z_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" style="background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" title="1516325762_e49fd5175e_z" width="644" /></a><br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/busybeingborn/1516325762/sizes/z/in/photostream/" target="_blank">The rocks are exposed in some places</a><br />
<a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-vQtiV_BjI0o/TxOgp9hHuSI/AAAAAAAAE2I/AJ98HW4HzFc/s1600-h/1515475821_fbbf460c84_z%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img alt="1515475821_fbbf460c84_z" border="0" height="484" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-A_aMNmn6pUI/TxOgqrtwh1I/AAAAAAAAE2Q/cJHd5LzqH2M/1515475821_fbbf460c84_z_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" style="background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" title="1515475821_fbbf460c84_z" width="644" /></a><br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/busybeingborn/1515475821/" target="_blank">A path through the nearby woods</a><br />
<a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-97Nzq9BqmYQ/TxOgrE2hWGI/AAAAAAAAE2Y/TZy7fFOrJtM/s1600-h/20111214_154451%25255B6%25255D.jpg"><img alt="20111214_154451" border="0" height="484" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-nLAW0sH4yd8/TxOgrr9P_5I/AAAAAAAAE2g/kkm1PgFevKM/20111214_154451_thumb%25255B3%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" style="background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" title="20111214_154451" width="350" /></a><br />
Close-up of lichen growing on the trees<br />
<br />
<a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-8Iw6zkmFbbc/TxOgsXJ8wPI/AAAAAAAAE2o/64TJiPXueCc/s1600-h/20111214_152349%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img alt="20111214_152349" border="0" height="403" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-JBcf07B6vxs/TxOgs3wtmII/AAAAAAAAE2s/8DrClHwgfWs/20111214_152349_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" style="background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" title="20111214_152349" width="644" /></a><br />
Steps away from open land, mossy trees cover the pathway.<br />
<br />
There are innumerable ways to measure out this landscape. The tallest peak is 1,905 feet high. A cup of soil beneath my feet weighs about two thirds of a pound. This spot is about a 40 minute drive from San Francisco (depending on traffic). With its infinite detail, reading aloud an inventory of the land could conceivably take forever. These exhaustive descriptions would not even include all the aspects that are changing. “Here a fallen tree is half decayed.” “After Wednesday's rain, there are 73 puddles left along the trail”. <br />
These descriptions wouldn’t even be possible, anyway, since most of these details are unknown; some <a href="http://pubs.usgs.gov/mf/2000/2337/" target="_blank">modern geologic maps of the San Francisco Bay Area</a> are humble enough to include question marks in certain locations. <br />
Science is about simplification and summarizing, however. There are so many details in the landscape, but which details are important? “Importance” naturally depends on purpose. For someone wanting to drive through the area, the roads are what matter the most. Descriptions of every inch of pavement are not even necessary, but rather knowing the length of roads and how they connect are probably enough for finding one's way. <br />
Similarly, someone wanting to know how a stream flows could use a hydrologic model. Around 50 years ago, in the valley below Windy Peak, Norm Crawford was the first person to use a computer to simulate a river. Much has changed since then. My small laptop in 2010 is about 100 million times as powerful as the 1960s computers. Printers, alone, at this time were half the size of an automobile. Now, computer models are a nearly indispensable tool in river forecasting. What Norm developed (the Stanford Watershed Model, named after his Alma Mater) continues to evolve and is still used around the world. In particular, it forms the core of many water quality models. <br />
Even though Norm was there at the birth of river simulation modeling, he still keeps a hand in the game. His consulting firm, <a href="http://www.hydrocomp.com/" target="_blank">Hydrocomp</a>, makes river modeling software, sets up modeling systems and provides other services to government and private industry. He gives talks at international conferences, offering seasoned wisdom but also ambitious vision. <br />
During a recent talk in Peru he ran his model in real-time “on the cloud” (i.e. through the Internet) rather than on his own computer. Decades ago, he would have had to schedule time with the computer operator to submit a job to run overnight. Norm has said “People underestimate what’s possible not only at the present time but in future time. My philosophy…is to build software systems that anticipate hardware that isn’t here yet.” <br />
Norm and I met in the Netherlands last year to share his ideas on models and reflect on what he started. Earlier that week, we had participated in a <a href="http://hepex.nmpi.net/workshops/special-topics-workshops/details/6-workshop-on-post-processing-and-verification-of-hydrological-ensemble-predictions.html" target="_blank">workshop of hydrologists interested in testing ways to make river forecasts that are honest about their uncertainty</a>. It was something like a “bake-off” where everyone brought their own technique to the table and applied it on a common dataset provided by the organizers. We were asked to pretend that we were making forecasts in a semi-realistic way (i.e. no peeking at the answers) so the results could be compared. In total, the team from CSIRO (<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/durgalalshrestha/" target="_blank">Durga Lal Shrestha</a> and I) churned out roughly ten billion forecasts by harnessing a <a href="http://www.hpsc.csiro.au/userguides/condor/" target="_blank">network of thousands of desktop computers in Australia</a>. <br />
This week will include a series of posts with excerpts of our three-hour interview and some of the discussions that followed. Norm’s story has been chronicled a few times in the scientific literature, such as the <a href="http://www.hydrocomp.com/publications/History%20of%20Stanford%20Watershed%20Model-Crawford-Burges.pdf">History of the Stanford Watershed Model</a> and a chapter from the book <a href="http://www.aquaterra.com/resources/pubs/pdf/donigian-2006.pdf">Watershed Models</a> although these focus more on the connections between different researchers and how the original “DNA” of the Stanford Watershed Model can be found in other models used widely in the community. My comments and questions are in blue and Norm is in black. <br />
This interview has several parts, click on a link to jump ahead to that section: <br />
<blockquote>
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7398091196418941706#Whatis"><span style="color: black;">What is a computer model? </span></a></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7398091196418941706#Whatuse"><span style="color: black;">What are these models used for?</span></a><span style="color: black;"> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7398091196418941706#Whatcamebefore"><span style="color: black;">What did people use before Norm Crawford invented the first river simulation model?</span></a><span style="color: black;"> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7398091196418941706#Whyhim"><span style="color: black;">How did he become the inventor of the Stanford Watershed Model?</span></a><span style="color: black;"> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7398091196418941706#Howtobuild"><span style="color: black;">How does someone build a computer model?</span></a></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7398091196418941706#Mislead"><span style="color: black;">Can models mislead people? Can people mislead models?</span></a></blockquote>
<b><a href="" name="Whatis">What is a computer model? </a></b> <br />
Norm Crawford: It’s the numerical equivalent of a physical simulator built to represent flying of a 747 [airplane]. If you were trying to be a pilot, you’d go and sit inside a reproduction of the [cockpit and its controls]. You can land and take off, and it recreates the entire environment of flying a plane... If you crash the simulator, nobody dies and you don’t lose a multi-million dollar airplane. <br />
Digital simulation models represent the hydrologic processes that occur in a watershed. Measure one is moisture in the soil – when rainfall occurs, this computer model will calculate whether it infiltrates into the soil or [becomes runoff] as the soil becomes more saturated.... Then water, if it does run off, moves into a small tributary and then maybe into a larger tributary and is measured downstream at some stream gauge. And the computer model calculates the hydraulics of movement of flow into channels along the river until it gets to the stream gauge. <br />
These models are calibrated [tuned to improve the results] by changing parameters that represent infiltration rates into the soil, rates of evaporation loss from the land surface, and transpiration from vegetation. It’s keeping track of what is referred to as a “water balance”. The model is just tracking a raindrop from the time that it falls and hits the ground, and then it keeps track of what happens to it to the point where it either evaporates or it flows in stream and flows out of the watershed that you’re interested in. <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: ...A lot of hydrologists would think of soil as being like a sponge...When it's dry and you put water in it, the water just soaks right into the sponge, it doesn’t leave. But once the sponge is full and saturated, any more water you put in will erupt over the top or drain out the bottom.</span></i> <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i> <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">These models are a set of equations that describe how the water would flow through the sponge. When you talk about parameters- that’s how you relate those general equations to your specific catchment, like how big is your sponge, what's the texture of your sponge?</span></i> <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i> <br />
Norm Crawford: Right. Is it an open sponge with large holes in it or a dense sponge that doesn’t absorb much water? <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: <b>Who would use these models? What would they use them for?</b> You mentioned a flight simulator [for training pilots]; was it a teaching tool?</span></i> <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i> <br />
Norm Crawford: Initially, we did use it quite heavily as a teaching tool. It was a very good way for students in hydrology to get a feel for the way a watershed would behave. And we actually built a classroom, probably the first in the country, maybe the first in the world, where we had computer terminals that would link to the Stanford University mainframe. Students could assemble some data for rainfall, evaporation on a watershed, and then change the character of the watershed surface, like change the infiltration rate, to get an immediate response back as to how the watershed was dealing with the rainfall. <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">[Nowadays, hydrology models are used very widely, inside and outside universities. As mentioned above, they are used for teaching, but they are also used for academic research. They are also used by consultants, engineers and a host of other professionals.]</span></i> <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i> <br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">What did people use before Norm Crawford invented the first river simulation model? </span></b> <br />
<b><span style="color: blue;"></span></b> <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: Were there river forecasts before computers?</span></i> <br />
<i><span style="color: #8064a2;"></span></i> <br />
Norm Crawford: Oh yeah, sure. The standard methodology was called “<a href="http://thinktech.lib.ttu.edu/bitstream/handle/2346/17148/31295004180567.pdf?sequence=1" target="_blank">coaxial correlation</a>”. It was a big piece of paper with a series of lines on it and you would enter a amount of rainfall, an index called an API [<a href="http://web.hwr.arizona.edu/globe/globe3/api512.html" target="_blank">Antecedent Precipitation Index</a>], and a drainage area, and it would kick out a number [for the flow of the river]. <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">[An API is like a index of how dry the catchment is, how much water is in the soils. For discussion of something similar to coaxial correlation, read about <a href="http://tompagano.blogspot.com/2011/10/from-models-to-forecasts-and-what.html">Manila hydrologists using such charts to forecast runoff from a typhoon</a>]</span></i> <br />
Norm Crawford: The professor [<a href="http://www.aihydrology.org/Ray_K_Linsley_1917-1990.pdf" target="_blank">Ray Linsley</a>] that I had actually developed [the API] for the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weather_Service" target="_blank">Weather Bureau</a> and for the stream forecasting service. And he had spent some years doing flood forecasting. He was also the head of civil engineering in Stanford at the time, and published [the books “Applied Hydrology”, “Elements of Hydraulic Engineering”, “Water Resources Engineering”, and “Hydrology for Engineers”, the last two of which are still in print]. <br />
<i></i> <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: So [the forecasters had look-up tables as a way of converting rainfall to runoff]. Someone would phone up with the rainfall amount for certain areas... or was there real-time [automatically transmitted] data?</span></i> <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i> <br />
Norm Crawford: There was real-time data collection in a way. I remember Professor Linsley telling us about [river forecasting] in class one day, and he said this activity is done 24 hours a day, in the middle of the night, and on weekends. If heavy rainfall is occurring, flood forecasters are on duty trying to figure it out. And one guy in class said “why are you telling us about that?”, [as in:] “we’re not going to work in the middle of the night, you’re crazy!”. It was a typical student wise remark. <br />
But the real-time data collection; they did have devices on some rivers based on the telephony system and you could call up and you’d get a beep response from a sensor. You could translate that [like Morse Code] into a stage [river depth] that was being measured at that location. <br />
One story that Ray [Linsley] told was about one of those remotes gauges… It was the only way that they could get that kind of information in [to the office], in time to be useful. Now, on a really large river, you could depend on somebody observing the stage [river depth] and calling you, but they did have these other devices where no human needed to do anything except call a right number. And they had a gauge that was giving frequent false alarms. The little beep system wasn’t working very well. <br />
And so this one day they called this gauge and it reported that the stage was five feet higher than normal. And in the flood forecasting office, they thought “well, that darn gauge is misbehaving again” and of course about three hours later the flood peak arrives and they realized the gauge was telling the truth. <br />
<b></b> <br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">How did he become the inventor of the Stanford Watershed Model?</span></b> <br />
<b><span style="color: blue;"></span></b> <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">[I asked about Norm's early influences and what shaped his thinking at the time. How did he get interested in science and computers? What was the context for his invention?] </span></i> <br />
Norm Crawford: I was born in the mid-1930s, and I grew up in Western Canada on the family farm and then in a small town of 1500 people. My family was basically farmers, although one of my grandfathers was an early graduate from the University of Ontario, and he was a minister. <br />
He moved to Alberta in 1908. Prior to radio or modern communication one of the recreational activities was for people to go to a community hall to hear someone lecture. My grandfather was one of the few educated men in the countryside, and (although he was a minister) he would lecture on astronomy and geology and politics. He was a college graduate and was an educated fellow. He had that kind of knowledge that other people did not have. And moreover, he was a very entertaining speaker and very outgoing. <br />
There was a defence line across Northern Canada to protect against Russian bombers flying over the pole with atomic bombs. There were these air bases with radars built in the middle of nowhere in Northern Alberta and the Northwest Territories. They were supposed to detect planes coming in, and they had fighters that would go up and engage them. One of the air bases that I visited with a number of other engineering students [from Alberta] had a very early and relatively small digital computer. These guys sitting up in the winter in that climate wouldn’t necessarily have a whole lot to do so they programmed that computer as an Artificial Intelligence [AI] machine. You could type into a typewriter and ask it questions like “how are you today?”, and the computer would answer, “I’m fine, how are you?” <br />
The early AI code could play checkers and talk to you in its fashion. One of my classmates was a very clever guy and he managed to defeat the computer at this one game, and the computer said “Wow, I can’t beat you!” <br />
<em><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: And <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WarGames" target="_blank">since it hadn’t been programmed to say that</a>, it was <strong>truly</strong> remarkable! [laughter]</span></em> <br />
Norm Crawford: So that opened my eyes of possibilities that these machines had. I then went to Stanford University, a pioneer among universities in computers. This was an era [where some saw a limited long-range demand for computers]. Perhaps a few offense labs and maybe a bank or two and that was all the computers that the US would ever need. Stanford had one of those machines and I took a course in [computer] programming. <br />
[The professor remarked that] revolutionary events happened in the way humans operate because of changes in speed. The impact of steam locomotives was such that you could build a railroad that would run fifteen times faster than a horse and carriage. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/victorians/speed_01.shtml" target="_blank">That caused a revolution in a way that goods and services could be delivered around the country</a>. He had a couple of other examples of the same kind. <br />
He said already the few computers [that existed in 1958] operated 100 to 1,000 times faster than one could operate the huge mechanical hand calculators (that could add, and subtract, and multiply with some difficulty). The concept of stored memory also meant you didn’t have to punch the keys to add two and two, but you could put in an instruction to do the addition. <br />
His statement [about changes in speed causing revolutions meant] changes in the way engineering science was done. Methods in engineering and science were tailored to the calculation speed that was existing. You could think of doing some calculation that would take ten years of typing, but you couldn’t actually do it. <br />
His feeling was that new methods had to be developed to take advantage of this orders of magnitude change and speed of computation, and that the old methods were simply obsolete. I thought, “wow, that’s true that things have to be entirely different. You couldn’t just do the old things in your old way”. It was trivial to use an engineering method designed for pencil and paper and put that on a digital computer because it would take a digital computer no time to do it. However, you wouldn’t get a <i>better</i> result than doing it on pencil and paper [just quicker] so why do it that way? I thought that was very neat idea.... <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">[Norm later recounted how he chose his graduate research topic. In his first year at Stanford University, he started working on an existing project that was trying to estimate the size of floods on small basins. The project was not very successful- the methods were not correct, the results not very good and the funding was ending.] </span></i> <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i> <br />
Norm Crawford: So [Advisor] Ray [Linsley] told me, “to heck with that stuff, just forget about it… why don’t you move to electrical engineering and they’ve got something over there called a digital computer. Well, I jumped on that because I was interested in digital computers. I went over and found a small room in electrical engineering where they had an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_650" target="_blank">IBM 650 machine</a>, one of the 50 that existed in the country. <br />
So out of that I started developing a methodology for representing the rainfall and runoff in river basins. I chose to do this in a way that [took advantage of not having to do the calculations by hand]. Repetitive computations were unlimited, as if you had this assistant who would calculate anything for you, and it didn’t matter how long it would take him because you could hardly think of anything that would take him terribly long. Running programs would take 10 to 20 minutes, and we had to sign up to use this machine. You’d go in and you’d actually operate the digital computer yourself, which a few years later was not allowed. The big deal about it was that the computer at the time cost $200 an hour in 1950 dollars, so that was a lot of money [and it was paid for by the <a href="http://www.nsf.gov/" target="_blank">National Science Foundation</a>]. <br />
So I developed, as a PhD thesis, the first continuous digital computer model called the Stanford Watershed Model. It was the first of its kind and nobody really knew what to make of it. When I published my dissertation, it did receive some attention (that was in 1962). In 1966, I published an update to the model that was very widely distributed around the world. Some 10,000 copies of this technical report were published and distributed by the University. That became the foundation for continuous digital computer models. <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">[As a side note, the famous technical report describing the model calls it the “<a href="http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=8444420985558382616&hl=en&as_sdt=0,7" target="_blank">Stanford Watershed Model IV</a>.” Model I was a daily-timestep model that apparently did not work very well. Model II was Norm's dissertation (which had an hourly-timestep). Model III was an unpublished incremental change in the model.] </span></i> <br />
Initially, people didn’t really quite know what it was. One person at a technical meeting around that era told me that it would set the science of hydrology back by 50 years… and he was serious, too! I can understand why he felt that way. <br />
<em><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: So we’re probably just recovering now?</span></em> <br />
Norm Crawford: Well, maybe never have recovered. <br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">How does someone build a computer model?</span></b> <br />
<b><span style="color: blue;"></span></b> <br />
<em><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: You could say these models were a way of learning about reality [i.e. for use in the classroom and in doing research]. But at the same time, you had to put someone's idea of reality into the model. How did you figure out what should go in the model?</span></em> <br />
Norm Crawford: Well, there were two elements to it. One is what might be called the model structure... the physical processes that you choose to include in the model [the other element to model building is algorithms, which is discussed elsewhere]. A feature of the Stanford model was that it was comprehensive, including both surface and sub-surface flows. Previously, the common way of doing things was, if you were dealing with floods, to just worry about the surface runoff or immediate runoff. <br />
But the Stanford model took the approach of representing all of the processes. And also, the common way of doing calculation for a flood, for example, was you would just calculate <u>during</u> the flood. After the rain stopped and evaporation started to occur, you just forget about it, and wait until the next flood. But the Stanford model operated continuously, and that was unique. <br />
<em><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: So in for metaphor of the sponge, surface runoff would be water flowing up over the top of the sponge that couldn’t get in. Base flow or subsurface flow is what’s draining out the bottom. During floods there’s lots of water coming out the top, and you don’t really care what’s coming out the bottom?</span></em> <br />
Norm Crawford: Yeah. Base flow is usually relatively small, at least in a major flood. Hydrology is full of exceptions, so what I just said is not always true. <br />
<span style="color: blue;"><em>Tom Pagano: Right. So how do you make a model if hydrology is full of exceptions?</em></span> <br />
Norm Crawford: Well, you represent the physical process as best you can. If you cover conditions that represent 98 or 99 percent of all the watersheds in the world, then that’s good enough for work, even if there are 1 or 2 percent that don’t work that way. <br />
A major example is that for most watersheds (like 99 percent) there’s a strong relationship between moisture in the soil, and the infiltration rate (the rate at which water will move from the surface into the soil profile). Dry soil takes much more water than a saturated soil profile. And so the rate of movement of water from the land surface into the soil can change by two to three orders of magnitude from dry to wet....When the soil profile becomes saturated, you’ll get lateral flow that moves water... down a slope gradient [i.e. out of the soil and up on to the surface as it goes downhill]. <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">[To put it another way, there's two effects going on here. Soil that is dry (“empty”) has more room to store new water in it. When the soil is wet, there is not as much room for additional water. Also, new water goes into dry soils relatively more quickly than it goes into dry soils. Think of it like someone eating until they're full. Someone with an empty stomach can eat a bigger meal than someone with a half full stomach. Also, as the person gets fuller, the rate that they can eat gets slower and slower. If the person can’t eat fast enough, food spills all over.] </span></i> <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: So what happens to that other 1 percent [where the standard model of soil moisture and runoff doesn't apply]?</span></i> <br />
Norm Crawford: You say “too bad”! There are two conditions where this happens. <br />
When you get into <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permafrost" target="_blank">permafrost</a> (areas of continuously frozen ground), the relationship between moisture and soil and runoff just isn’t there… It doesn’t work that way. The runoff will be more associated with temperatures. You might get a warm rain and only the top two or three inches of the permafrost may be frozen, and you get a lot of runoff like it’s flowing off of concrete. <br />
The other [exception] is that there are some soils that become <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrophobic_soil" target="_blank">hydrophobic</a> [water repellant] when they become extremely dry. That happens in desert areas. That water will bead up like water on windshield of your car, and it will form dusty drops, and those drops just roll across the surface, and the soil profile doesn’t pick it up – it effectively blocks infiltration in the extreme; the soil is totally hydrophobic. That second phenomenon is usually somewhat intermittent. And then the whole thing will switch, the soil profile’s hydrophobia goes away and all of a sudden it switches to acting in a more normal fashion.... <br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: You developed this model, based on some idea of how the world works. Did you ever find out that you were wrong, or that some part of the model doesn’t work? Do you ever get rid of parts of a model?</span></i> <br />
Norm Crawford: Yes. There’s almost a continuous process of trying to improve the model. In fact, we made significant changes in parts of the model a couple of months ago when we were doing some things with snow melt and snow heat exchange. [We did a process of improvement of the soil moisture model between 1960-1966] when I first started building that model, but then not many changes were made in the detail of how that’s done. After [1966] there had been considerable change [in other parts of the model], but that original core of the way the soil moisture and infiltration worked has not changed because I couldn’t find any way that it would work better.<br />
<strong><span style="color: blue;">Can models mislead people? Can people mislead models? </span></strong><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><em>[River forecasters often refer to model outputs as “guidance”. The phrase implies that the models can inform the forecast process, but shouldn’t have the final say on the product going to the customer. However, there are varying opinions about how much model outputs should change a forecaster’s mind, or how much a forecaster should use his mind to tinker with the model so it gives a better answer.]</em></span><br />
<em><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: What’s your feelings about the relationship between people and models in that sense? </span></em><br />
Norm Crawford: Well, you don’t change [model] parameters in the middle of a flood. Model design is such that the parameters are supposed to be constant, and they’re developed by continuous simulation over a long period of time including a number of [historical] floods of different characters and so on. <br />
The major thing, on the set of major flood, is that people are pretty shocked by what’s going on. And people will often be sleeping on the floor of their offices, making decisions that are unlike anything that they’ve done before. <br />
In Tuolumne River [in California] in 1997, just right around Christmastime, <a href="http://cepsym.info/Sympro1997/roos.pdf" target="_blank">there had been quite a lot of heavy rain</a>. There was a series of storms that are known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pineapple_Express" target="_blank">Pineapple Express storms</a>, were coming in off the Pacific into California. <br />
The man who was responsible for <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Don_Pedro_Dam" target="_blank">Don Pedro Dam</a> (which is a 600 foot high earth dam on fourth largest lake in California) was busy checking with the forecast office. He was told that there would be a break between the storms, and he figured he could go home and not worry about it for a couple of days. This turned up to not be true, and they started to get very heavy rain. And they were getting rain at high elevation as opposed to snow, which makes a great difference. And this man was busy running models and he was seeing risk [of failure] to the dam, and the dam at that point had been build about 30 years prior and had a large spillway. The spillway had never been used. <br />
Sometime in that three day period, he’s talking with the head of the agency (Tuolumne Irrigation District owns the dam), and he’s talking to his boss. His boss was asking “are you sure about these numbers?”, “are you sure this has happened?”. [The dam manager] was saying “that’s what’s going on, we’re getting this huge flows coming out of the upper river!” And so they opened the spillway for the first time ever, wiped out a [well used] road immediately below [the dam]. The amount of water coming out tore out a 150 foot wide, 20 foot deep channel immediately. It took all that soil and just took out and caused flooding downstream in the city. <br />
Events like that become legendary [and stick in the minds of water managers]… The first time that spill way was used, and [the operator] sleeping on the floor of his office for three nights. For people who make that kind of decision, it becomes a combination of “I hope I never have to go through that again in my life”, which is pretty likely that they won’t have to. And “it’s also very exciting time to go through”. <br />
<span style="color: blue;"><em>Tom Pagano: Maybe even there’s an addiction to the drama – </em></span> <br />
Norm Crawford: Yeah, it might be addictive, but it’s not something that you can readily form an addiction. <br />
<span style="color: blue;"><em>Tom Pagano: …We were talking about guidance and models and whether humans should trust them or try and change the model results…You’ve got an idea of what you think the model result should be, and maybe you adjust the model to make it match how you think it should behave. But then the rest of the result you get is [given to you by the model. For example], say you know what the peak flow should be, but you don’t know how quickly the river is going to drop after the peak… You let the model articulate all those other things that you don’t have time to figure out? </em></span> <br />
Norm Crawford: Well, I’ll tell you another instance. We have a model on a river in Southern California, with a fairly large dam upstream. A large flood developed – again, something bigger than anybody has seen in their lifetime. Based on model results, the downstream town’s Mayor and police department were told that they would expect the stream to go out onto its floodplain. Also, there are a number of people living there, and they should expect the peak to arrive in about eight hours. The Mayor was a fisherman and he knew from fishing in this river that if they released flow with this dam it would take 24 hours to get to the city. <br />
So he told the police department “Relax, I know what the river’s doing, don’t worry about evacuating anybody”. What of course he didn’t know is that a high flow moves much faster than a low flow. The flood arrived in eight hours. It was pretty dicey. They had to go in and get people under emergency conditions just because the mayor didn’t understand channel hydraulics. <br />
<span style="color: blue;">Should users be able to see the raw output of models? Or only know what the forecasters tell them? </span> <br />
<em><span style="color: blue;">[In the age of powerful computers and the Internet, it is becoming much easier for users to access model outputs and make their own interpretations of the results. An analogy for this would be like patients doing their own research on the internet about their medical symptoms and what treatments should work. Independently of a doctor, a patient may self-diagnose that they have, for example, the flu… or maybe something more serious and exotic like pneumonia. They might be right, they might be wrong.] </span></em> <br />
<em><span style="color: blue;">Tom Pagano: What do you think about giving users model output?</span></em> <br />
Norm Crawford: My inclination is to make the information available and just trust the public to read the caveats about it. That’s a better policy generally than to try to restrict the information. There’s always been in the United States [people interested in weather]. <a href="http://www.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">NOAA</a> [the parent of the National Weather Service] takes advantage of an individual’s interest in those activities and will provide a rain gauge to someone [so they can measure rainfall at their house]. If [NOAA wants to] gauge<b> </b>in a certain area, they’ll go and find someone who would be the observer. Some of these observers traditionally were not paid. They just filled in a form every month with rainfall amounts and temperature [at their home] and mailed it in. <br />
There are citizen networks of automatic gauges [such as Weather Underground] that report in- there’s thousands of these stations within the U.S. were people are measuring temperature and precipitation and sometimes wind and other things. It isn’t much of a stretch for these people to acquire some software that would represent hydrology and set up their own personal forecasting system for flow in a little creek that goes by their house. That latter part, I’m not sure how much that is done but it’s a perfectly technically feasible to do.<br />
Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-567184298430485192014-02-21T05:28:00.001-05:002014-02-21T05:28:36.965-05:00What is a good forecast? - HEPEX BlogToday I published my first of a series of <a href="http://hepex.irstea.fr/meet-hepex-columnists-for-2014/" target="_blank">guest columnist posts</a> in the HEPEX blog. The topic is "<a href="http://hepex.irstea.fr/what-is-a-good-forecast/" target="_blank">What is a good forecast?</a>" (click that link to read it). It is a non-technical discussion of what makes information trustworthy, relevant, useful and so on, in a forecasting context.<br />
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HEPEX is the <a href="http://hepex.irstea.fr/" target="_blank">Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction EXperiment</a>, an international volunteer collective of scientists, forecasters and users interested in demonstrating the value of ensemble forecasts. This year HEPEX is celebrating its 10th anniversary. I fondly remember giving a talk in 2005 at the second workshop. It is a great effort, worthy of support!Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-70284937738402026662013-12-16T00:47:00.000-05:002013-12-16T00:47:00.238-05:00Using balloons for flood warning<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As highlighted in some previous posts about <a href="http://tompagano.blogspot.com.au/2011/11/nepali-early-warning-systems-practical.html" target="_blank">community flood warning in Nepal</a>, it is challenging to get the attention of a community and give them actionable advice on what to do during a flood. </span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Traditionally sound (e.g. from sirens) has been used for warning. However, urban sound pollution and the noise of heavy rain makes such sirens less effective. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 21px;">Malaysia just announced an innovative program for flood warning using balloons.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 21px;"> </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaHjyTfOY0xp0DZJvuDJermy8Cp5TfSW7ZHJMpSpvxNImS5d5kpAZiPp3DYY3Or8-iSErFHXav_rb4Jvq7R2Zb0KPONuIUFMo51WVRhKHuSFhwQRPZCo8I0jobBY1b1Y7cZSv26SSwQL_s/s1600/pix_gal0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaHjyTfOY0xp0DZJvuDJermy8Cp5TfSW7ZHJMpSpvxNImS5d5kpAZiPp3DYY3Or8-iSErFHXav_rb4Jvq7R2Zb0KPONuIUFMo51WVRhKHuSFhwQRPZCo8I0jobBY1b1Y7cZSv26SSwQL_s/s400/pix_gal0.jpg" width="312" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Ahmad Phesal (second from right) with Ahmad Husaini (right) at Monday's balloon launch. (<a href="http://www.bharian.com.my/bharian/articles/Belonberiamaranbanjir/Article" target="_blank">source</a>)</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to <a href="http://www.nst.com.my/streets/central/balloon-flood-warning-system-1.433657#ixzz2nc6WONej" target="_blank">a recent article in the New Straights Times</a></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">KUALA LUMPUR: RESIDENTS of flood-prone Kampung Kasipillay and surrounding communities can now act fast to take precautions, thanks to City Hall's Flood Warning Balloon.</span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The balloon is a project of Innovative and Creative Hybrid Group, City Hall and the Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID).</span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Flood Warning Balloon, which cost RM120,000 [roughly $12,000 USD], is the first in the world, and was invented to warn residents and road users in the event of a flash flood.</span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When a sensor detects that the water level of Sungai Batu has risen to a dangerous level, a siren will sound and the balloon will gradually rise to a height of 50 metres in the air. It will rise to 70 metres when the water reaches a critical level.</span></i></div>
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<br />Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-18465334295578855302013-11-09T16:46:00.002-05:002013-11-09T16:46:58.523-05:00News aggregators- Typhoon Haiyan on Global Flood News <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The major story in the news this week is "Stormaggedon" Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines where one of the strongest Pacific Typhoons ever prompted <a href="http://reliefweb.int/disaster/tc-2013-000139-phl" target="_blank">the evacuation of hundreds of thousands and has affected millions</a>. Some photo galleries are at <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/rachelzarrell/27-devastating-images-from-typhoon-haiyans-destruction" target="_blank">Buzzfeed</a> and the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/10/world/asia/philippines-typhoon.html" target="_blank">New York Times</a> has some extended coverage. </div>
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For an idea of the scope of the event media event though, the <a href="http://www.globalfloodnews.com/reports/index?sw=75.9526%2C-12.4082&ne=158.223%2C53.9528&s=1383861600&e=1384034399&z=1" target="_blank">Global Flood News</a> site links to over 56,000 items in the past 3 days, about 90% of which are from twitter. Their front page includes a map with counts of of recent news items related to floods. I've been watching this site for a few months and I can't remember any other stories breaking 10,000 items. </div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AqKUdei3a00/Un6oCcEJnkI/AAAAAAAAPs0/-oue-ytp8C8/s1600/2013-11-10+08_23_33-GlobalFloodNews.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AqKUdei3a00/Un6oCcEJnkI/AAAAAAAAPs0/-oue-ytp8C8/s400/2013-11-10+08_23_33-GlobalFloodNews.png" width="600" /></a></div>
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It's possible to get information at sub-national scales, such as this zoom in to the affected region:<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ky_Ah76dGe4/Un6s_la1FnI/AAAAAAAAPtE/Qh0kmsvcek8/s1600/2013-11-10+08_43_57-GlobalFloodNews.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ky_Ah76dGe4/Un6s_la1FnI/AAAAAAAAPtE/Qh0kmsvcek8/s1600/2013-11-10+08_43_57-GlobalFloodNews.png" /></a></div>
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The website also allows you to subscribe to alerts for your area.<br />
<br />Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-20822521747397010992013-03-18T20:06:00.000-04:002013-03-18T20:06:08.260-04:00Spiders in the treesFollowing on the earlier story about rats in New York, there is also an example of a flood's effects on spiders in Pakistan. <a href="http://photography.nationalgeographic.com.au/photography/photo-of-the-day/spider-web-cocooons-pakistan/">National Geographic has a photograph</a> and here's the original caption:<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GWQjlUwNlFc/UUeric2K8mI/AAAAAAAANlY/kvcF-QKZkFY/s1600/spider-web-cocooons-pakistan_44718_990x742.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GWQjlUwNlFc/UUeric2K8mI/AAAAAAAANlY/kvcF-QKZkFY/s640/spider-web-cocooons-pakistan_44718_990x742.jpg" width="600" /> </a></div>
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"An unexpected side effect of the 2010 flooding in parts of Sindh, Pakistan<a href="http://travel.nationalgeographic.com/travel/countries/pakistan-guide/"></a>,
was that millions of spiders climbed up into the trees to escape the
rising flood waters; because of the scale of the flooding and the fact
that the water took so long to recede, many trees became cocooned in
spiderwebs. People in the area had never seen this phenomenon before,
but they also reported that there were fewer mosquitoes than they would
have expected, given the amount of standing water that was left. Not
being bitten by mosquitoes was one small blessing for people that had
lost everything in the floods." </div>
Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-76168764283390396842013-03-07T20:12:00.001-05:002013-03-07T20:23:20.946-05:00FEWS in the news (Indonesia)The most widely read post on this blog is <a href="http://tompagano.blogspot.com/2011/09/manggarai-gate-garbage-part-22.html" target="_blank">a photo essay of one of the dirtiest spots on the dirtiest rivers in the world</a>, the Citarum River upstream of Jakarta. I also interviewed <a href="http://tompagano.blogspot.com/2011/09/in-shadow-of-east-floodway.html" target="_blank">a few of the people who live along the river</a> and those who are involved with <a href="http://tompagano.blogspot.com/2011/09/observer-at-ciliwung-gate-part-12.html" target="_blank">monitoring floods before they reach the city</a> and <a href="http://tompagano.blogspot.com/2011/09/worlds-biggest-morning-glory.html" target="_blank">managing the dams upstream</a>. <br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jqU8eNBUlqU/UTkxW0O0aiI/AAAAAAAANgk/HC0FrZP4f8w/s1600/20130118193323770.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jqU8eNBUlqU/UTkxW0O0aiI/AAAAAAAANgk/HC0FrZP4f8w/s640/20130118193323770.jpg" width="600" /></a></div>
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A man collects garbage washed together by Jakarta’s massive January 2013 flood <a href="http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/eyewitness/jakarta-submerged-day-2/566256/327943" target="_blank">(AFP Photo/Bay Ismoyo)</a>
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At the time, two years ago, there was effectively no official quantitative flood forecasting system for Jakarta, which is incredible for a city of ten million people. That has recently changed.<br />
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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/P7YWC7RAGXw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe><br> <a href="http://www.youtube.com/embed/P7YWC7RAGXw"> Dramatic video of water flooding into a basement earlier this year. </a></div>
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In January a major flood inundated large parts of the city, including unprecedented flooding of the central business district. It put a new forecasting system to the test.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VQWsxKqE28Q/UTkyMBBoGnI/AAAAAAAANgw/9MN-rfvvDKE/s1600/1358443356-severe-flooding-kills-at-least-4-people-in-jakarta_1733413.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VQWsxKqE28Q/UTkyMBBoGnI/AAAAAAAANgw/9MN-rfvvDKE/s640/1358443356-severe-flooding-kills-at-least-4-people-in-jakarta_1733413.jpg" width="600" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://www.demotix.com/news/1733218/severe-flooding-kills-least-4-people-jakarta#media-1733413" target="_blank">Garbage backing up near <span class="caption"> Kalibata bridge</span></a> January 2013</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHLx8-moSQIl8plx1zyv1byiKLNONZEjGxG8P2IWzmw-u5Cb08FSo9vHYiDVyfpxI9jXQg0IVzrwVivJ4vJayLfs0e4NcFSqrSsVngqOAzzhz_x0BlmTJOPt_J9jGD6RiP2-82mCshJGS4/s1600/2013-01-17T143758Z_1323207769_GM1E91H1MFW01_RTRMADP_3_INDONESIA-FLOODS.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHLx8-moSQIl8plx1zyv1byiKLNONZEjGxG8P2IWzmw-u5Cb08FSo9vHYiDVyfpxI9jXQg0IVzrwVivJ4vJayLfs0e4NcFSqrSsVngqOAzzhz_x0BlmTJOPt_J9jGD6RiP2-82mCshJGS4/s640/2013-01-17T143758Z_1323207769_GM1E91H1MFW01_RTRMADP_3_INDONESIA-FLOODS.JPG" width="600" /></a></div>
<a href="http://ca.shine.yahoo.com/photos/flooding-in-jakarta-prompts-thousands-to-flee-slideshow/woman-stands-her-food-stall-flooded-business-area-photo-130341865.html" target="_blank">Original caption</a>: A woman stands in her food stall in the flooded business area in Jakarta January 17, 2013. Heavy monsoonal rains triggered severe flooding in large swathes of the Indonesian capital Jakarta on Thursday, with many government offices and businesses forced to closed because staff could not get to work. Weather officials warned the rains could get worse over the next few days and media reports said that thousands of people in Jakarta and its satellite cities had been forced to leave their homes because of the torrential downpours this week. REUTERS/Enny Nuraheni<br />
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From a <a href="http://www.dutchwatersector.com/news/news/2013/02/jakarta-flooding-put-new-flood-information-system-unexpectedly-to-the-test/" target="_blank">dutch water sector news site article</a>: "The Flood Management Information System (FMIS) that had been
installed by HKV Consultants and research institute Deltares late 2012
was put to the test. The system is operated by the DKI Jakarta Public
Works and connected the city’s telemetry to a flood forecasting model.
The flood information is disseminated to disaster organizations. The implementation of the FMIS-system is part of a World bank flood
mitigation project. The first phase was completed in December 2012."</div>
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The article also includes photos of the disaster control room.</div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-opNSwjtncdQ/UTk1x2fNVVI/AAAAAAAANhU/PThE0kQ3AQM/s1600/dws-hkv-jakarta-floods-2013-diagram-water-levels-ciliwung-525px.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-opNSwjtncdQ/UTk1x2fNVVI/AAAAAAAANhU/PThE0kQ3AQM/s1600/dws-hkv-jakarta-floods-2013-diagram-water-levels-ciliwung-525px.jpg" /></a></div>
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Most remarkably, it has a screen shot of the river forecasting software. </div>
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This is quite possibly the first time that I have ever seen a time series chart of river flows and forecasts in a news article. This is also the unmistakable interface of Deltares' Delft-FEWS (Flood Early Warning System) software used operationally in the US, UK and almost 20 other countries. </div>
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Today is actually the last day of a two week workshop to finalize the specifications for delivering a Delft-FEWS system to the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia. For the interested, I asked a Deltares representative what hydrologic model was being used in Jakarta and he replied the Sacramento model, the same as is used at the US National Weather Service. </div>
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Better monitoring and forecasting are part of a broader flood prevention program in Jakarta. It also <a href="http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/home/jakarta-flooding-highlights-prevention-gaps/567449" target="_blank">includes large infrastructure projects such as canals but also "soft" solutions such as improved management of garbage</a>. </div>
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Of course, Google also got in the action launching its own <a href="http://www.google.org/intl/en/crisisresponse/2013-jakarta-flood.html" target="_blank">crisis response website for the January floods</a>. There are also various reports from relief agencies about impacts from the flood <a href="http://indonesia.humanitarianresponse.info/visuals/jakarta-floods-map-17-january-2013" target="_blank">here</a> <a href="http://reliefweb.int/disaster/fl-2013-000006-idn" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://reliefweb.int/map/indonesia/indonesia-jakarta-floods-21-jan-2013" target="_blank">here</a>. </div>
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Already the system is being tested again with another series of floods this week. Already <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-05/floods-swamp-thousands-of-homes-in-jakarta/4554638" target="_blank">16,000 people have been affected by the March flooding </a>(compared with 250,000 in January) although the management options are more limited because <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-05/jakarta-floods-force-thousands-from-homes/4552488" target="_blank">the reservoirs are now fuller than they were in January.</a> </div>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-H60n1zDEQ88/UTk6BGLhzYI/AAAAAAAANho/2yKy2Y1V5SQ/s1600/4554632-3x2-700x467.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-H60n1zDEQ88/UTk6BGLhzYI/AAAAAAAANho/2yKy2Y1V5SQ/s400/4554632-3x2-700x467.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-05/floodwaters-swamp-indonesian-capital/4554636" target="_blank">Improvised rafts in South Jakarta</a></div>
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Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-83503794428563426152013-03-06T23:51:00.000-05:002013-03-06T23:53:00.762-05:00Rats! (Hurricane Sandy)When a city floods, what happens to its rodents?<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0aBvnf59jSQ/UTgYw42yyYI/AAAAAAAANf8/FB5WLOZu7x0/s1600/948987-superstorm-rats.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0aBvnf59jSQ/UTgYw42yyYI/AAAAAAAANf8/FB5WLOZu7x0/s640/948987-superstorm-rats.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Tough as nails: <a href="http://www.news.com.au/world-news/did-new-yorks-rats-relocate-after-sandy/story-fndir2ev-1226583948639" target="_blank">New York City street rats</a></div>
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The AP asks "<a href="http://www.news.com.au/world-news/did-new-yorks-rats-relocate-after-sandy/story-fndir2ev-1226583948639" target="_blank">Did New York's rats relocate after Sandy</a>?" Experts are of two minds. The city health department collects extensive surveys of rats and found that, although large storms can flush out rats, many also drown. In the end "the net effect of large storms is often a decrease in the rat population". <br />
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Some fear that the rats relocated into new territory and there has been a rise in calls to exterminators. According to a pest control expert "'They are adaptable. They can swim. They can move distances,' he said, citing radio telemetry studies showing that rats can move several miles if displaced by environmental conditions."<br />
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But this being New York, even the rats are resilient. "I have seen them dive over 70 feet (21 metres), swim 500 yards (450 metres), give me the finger and head for the hills," a rat hunting expert said, "Hurricane Sandy is not going to affect these critters."<br />
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The article mentions a serious blow to the rodent population, however- the <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/scientists-focus-another-sandy-loss-lab-mice-073931030.html" target="_blank">loss of thousands of research mice in the basement of New York University's Langone Medical Center</a>. <br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-e5PUifaKqZo/UTgY4ttnXhI/AAAAAAAANgE/CuxbRtpyNpw/s1600/18bd85dbd9c156072b0f6a7067006a8b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-e5PUifaKqZo/UTgY4ttnXhI/AAAAAAAANgE/CuxbRtpyNpw/s400/18bd85dbd9c156072b0f6a7067006a8b.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/scientists-focus-another-sandy-loss-lab-mice-073931030.html" target="_blank">Original caption</a>: In this Jan. 18, 2013 photo provided by the NYU Langone Medical Center, a
researcher holds a laboratory mouse in a research building at the hospital's
complex in New York.<span class="expandable-text" id="yui_3_5_1_1_1362629489570_594"><span class="more-text" id="yui_3_5_1_26_1362629489570_181" style="display: none;"> …<a class="more-text-link" href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7398091196418941706&pli=1" id="yui_3_5_1_26_1362629489570_180">more<b> </b></a></span><span class="less-text" style="display: inline;"> During Superstorm Sandy on Oct. 29, 2012, a storm surge
flooded the basement housing some 7,000 cages of mice used for studying cancer,
diabetes, brain development and other health issues. Each cage held up to five
of the little rodents, and even four months later, nobody knows exactly how many
perished. </span></span></div>
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<span class="expandable-text" id="yui_3_5_1_1_1362629489570_594"><span class="less-text" style="display: inline;">AP reports: "</span></span>Now, about 50 scientists at the <span class="yshortcuts cs4-ndcor" id="lw_1362556686891_1">NYU Langone Medical
Center</span> are going through the slow process of replacing them. What they
lost in a few minutes one terrible night in October will take more than a year
to recover, at a cost of tens of millions of dollars."</div>
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Far from the gritty streets, these mice are kept in ultra-sterile labs and their lives are closely controlled. For some researchers it's a devastating setback. One scientist remarked about having to start over "The silver lining of the whole storm, what
little there is, is the fact it allows me to refocus myself," he said. Now he
can "go after what is interesting to me now, not what was interesting to me two
years ago."</div>
Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-36808458130410876362013-02-18T11:36:00.001-05:002013-02-18T11:36:01.992-05:00“I smell smoke.”<p>I stepped off the train at Southern Cross station in Melbourne and smelled smoke. I looked to my phone and opened <a href="http://www.emergencyaus.info/discover/app/" target="_blank">EmergencyAUS</a> (free). I started to submit a report. My options were: <p>“I can see” <p>“I can feel” <p>“I am” <p>“I can hear” <p>“I can smell” <p>I picked “smell”. I was then guided through another series of multiple choice options to describe my situation. Eventually I constructed: <p>“I can smell… smoke… at my current location… now.” <p>EmergencyAUS then showed me that a lot of other people in Melbourne smelled it too. By the looks of the map of everyone’s observations I was on the western edge of the plume; icons of noses were densest in the northern suburbs but there were reports extending straight down to the coast an hour away. <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-GU13uPXTucU/USJYWTeTjkI/AAAAAAAANd0/662or5CfAfI/s1600-h/EmergencyAUS1%25255B1%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="EmergencyAUS1" border="0" alt="EmergencyAUS1" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-0RZv-uTsyfI/USJYYHkuOoI/AAAAAAAANd8/YR2Ds0Up2eo/EmergencyAUS1_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="408" height="460"></a> <p align="center">Noses in and around melbourne- other people who smelled the smoke (sorry for the terrible picture- my phone is my usual camera so this is a webcam of my phone) <p>Some people didn’t just smell the smoke, they saw it. Craigieburn to the north had a cluster of icons of eyes: “I see… a plume of… smoke… at my current location… less than an hour ago…” <p>One of the eyes on Napier Street (3.4 km away) uploaded a photograph of a large plume of smoke that I could download. This made me realize that when I sat down at work this afternoon and looked out the window, I also saw the plume of smoke but didn’t know what I was looking at at the time. <p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-w_pDppQS-co/USJYZkU-3cI/AAAAAAAANeE/hA8s2PT5MQg/s1600-h/EmergencyAUS2%25255B1%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="EmergencyAUS2" border="0" alt="EmergencyAUS2" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-_O5TB8ABPj0/USJYbbsXEBI/AAAAAAAANeM/AXBiDspJXWk/EmergencyAUS2_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="410" height="375"></a></p> <p align="center">Ordinary citizens aren’t the only ones on EmergencyAUS. The metropolitan fire brigade submitted its own blazing red icon on the map indicating “Non structure fire: going. Not yet under control- more resources requested” (upper right) <p>The Country Fire Authority (CFA) had its own white icon with “fire warning advice”. The advice described the situation, gave advice on what to do and included links to more information and where to get situation updates. <p>Earlier today EmergencyAUS pushed alerts to me that happened within 1 km of my home. For example, 6 minutes ago an alarm went off on Collins street. Earlier this weekend, I heard two sirens drive by and after checking my phone I knew where they were going. Bigger search areas are possible but the city is a busy place and I didn’t want warning fatigue. <p>EmergencyAUS is not just about fire. Citizens can report and learn about floods, earthquakes, tsunami and so on. They can report that they are being evacuated by the police, are without power or even are looking at a destroyed bridge (!). There is mutual community support: “I need…a generator…at my current location… now” through to “I know where to get… bottled water…”. <p>Who is doing this? EmergencyAUS says little about what is supporting it except to say it’s “Built by <a href="http://gridstone.com.au/" target="_blank">Gridstone</a> and powered by <a href="http://www.ripeintel.info/" target="_blank">Ripe Intelligence</a>”. The application is free for use in one state. To subscribe to all states is $24.50, or $4.50 per state for a year. <p><strong>Extra</strong>: there is another app called <a href="http://gridstone.com.au/work/cfa-fireready" target="_blank">FireReady</a>. While EmergencyAUS is all emergencies, FireReady focuses on bushfires and gives more detail. It too says that 30.79 km to the north 70 emergency vehicles have been attending to a large (1900 hectares) grass fire since yesterday. There are reports of wildfire on the roads and the app gives a list of what to do to stay safe. I first learned about FireReady driving by a billboard. </p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-66099964192858449932012-12-11T02:45:00.001-05:002012-12-11T02:48:00.580-05:00The Ultimate Forecast (the End is Near)<p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-b9mIKPjpP8A/UMbkbj00LoI/AAAAAAAANZ4/z547kzWzkvU/s1600-h/gillard_end_of_world_648x365_2312984345-hero%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="gillard_end_of_world_648x365_2312984345-hero" border="0" alt="gillard_end_of_world_648x365_2312984345-hero" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-8Xx4LCvuRBQ/UMbkmhhcYkI/AAAAAAAANaA/PKOnsFDF0rA/gillard_end_of_world_648x365_2312984345-hero_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="559" height="322"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillard-warns-of-zombie-k-pop-doomsday/story-fn59niix-1226531310196">“My dear remaining fellow Australians…”</a></p> <p>Late last week, Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard spoke to her citizens, addressing their concerns about the impending end of the world on 21 December. Here is the transcript </p> <p align="left"><em>"My dear remaining fellow Australians. The end of the world is coming. It wasn't Y-2K, it wasn't even the carbon price, it turns out that the Mayan calendar was true. While Australia's best and brightest at the [government research agency] <a href="http://www.csiro.au/">CSIRO</a> have not been able to confirm this, I'm confident in [local radio station] <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/">Triple J's</a> prediction that the world is about to end. Whether the final blow comes from flesh-eating zombies, demonic hell-beasts, or from the total triumph of K-Pop [Korean pop music]. </em></p> <p align="center"><iframe height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/7JRB8k6SP7I" frameborder="0" width="560" allowfullscreen></iframe></p> <p><em>If you know one thing about me, it is this, I will always fight for you to the very end and at least this means I won't have to do Q&A again. Good luck to you all."</em></p> <p>The predictions are based on the end of the Mayan calendar and have prompted <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html">NASA to put up a webpage reassuring people that there is no scientific evidence that the world is going to end</a>. For example, from their Q & A section</p> <p><em>Just as the calendar you have on your kitchen wall does not cease to exist after December 31, the Mayan calendar does not cease to exist on December 21, 2012. This date is the end of the Mayan long-count period but then -- just as your calendar begins again on January 1 -- another long-count period begins for the Mayan calendar.</em></p> <p>On the topic that a rogue planet will strike the earth on 21 December, NASA tells us that such an Earth-killing body would have been seen by now on telescopes. </p> <p>NASA is just one opinion of many. When faced with a thorny prediction problem (including recent presidential elections), people often turn to markets for guidance. According to news.com.au, <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/some-think-the-world-will-end-in-fire-some-in-ice-but-many-believe-the-walking-dead-will-finish-us-off/story-fndo4eg9-1226531337614">some markets are stating that a Zombie Apocalypse is unlikely</a>. Specifically</p> <p><em>Sportsbet is running a 'novelty market' on the end of the world. While the spread of a new incurable killer virus is coming in at the shortest odds at 20-1 and being eaten alive by zombies is sitting on the longest odds at 1000-1, Sportsbet spokesman Shaun Anderson said zombies was actually the most popular bet.</em></p> <p>The payoff on a doomsday bet is an interesting concept. Years ago I saw Al Gore give his traveling "Inconvenient Truth” lecture and at one point he made fun of a cartoon that showed a balance scale with on one side a stack of gold bars and on the other the earth. The idea was the balance and tradeoffs between conservation and economic growth. However, Gore's point was “it doesn’t matter how attractive the gold bars are, if you lose the earth you lose everything and the gold bars will be worth nothing.” </p> <p>Therefore, if the Zombie Apocalypse could cause potentially infinite damage, even if the probability of it happening is extremely small, then it would always work out that the cost of protection would always be justified. </p> <p>What do you think? Comment below while you still can!</p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-33635748343335576752012-11-28T11:38:00.001-05:002012-11-28T11:44:02.835-05:00The Last Night on the Road<p>It is 10:08 pm in Phnom Penh on 28 November 2012. I’m in a hotel whose name I don’t know and whose rate is $7 per night. The bar across the street advertises “no knifes, no guns, no hand grenades”. I wonder how often hand grenades are found during pat-downs. </p> <p>Tomorrow I make one last visit to the Mekong River Forecasting Center before flying to Kuala Lumpur and then back to Melbourne. That will then be the end of 475 days (16 months) of traveling around the world to more than two dozen countries. </p> <p>Today is the annual Water Festival (Bon Om Touk) celebrating the annual reversal of the direction of flow of the Tonlé Sap River. That bafflingly complex system deserves its own series of “hydrologic oddities” posts. During part of the year the Mekong flows North up this tributary to quadruple the size of a large inland lake. Then when the Mekong river is low, the lake drains South back towards the mainstem and to the ocean. </p> <p>It seems too that tomorrow my inland lake of travel experiences will stop filling and the entire system will be momentarily still. </p> <p>My bags are packed and the contents of my luggage have only gotten more impractical through time. There are a few shirts, a few pants, a fat wad of foreign currency, a cannonball’s worth of overseas coins, bags of computer cables, a stack of hard drives, medicines in five languages (none of them English) and hundreds of pages of notebooks, reports and interview notes. </p> <p>This blog has only been updated through February. I underestimated the difficulty of trying to travel and write at the same time. The blog doesn’t include the visits to </p> <p>Egypt: to see the world’s oldest streamgage and to see the sand dunes</p> <p>Vienna: to speak at Europe’s largest meeting of Earth Scientists</p> <p>France: to go to the Paris river forecasting center and to be a visiting scientist at IRSTEA, studying how to model extreme floods</p> <p>Luxembourg: to go to a workshop on how to read a landscape and use that to build better computer models of its river</p> <p>Scotland: to visit Mike Cranston’s group at the SEPA forecasting center and to get out into an experimental catchment in the highlands </p> <p>Northern Ireland: to try (and fail) at a pilgrimage to Galway, the Mecca for hydrologists… A visit to some natural wonders would have to suffice</p> <p>England: to go to the UK Flood Forecasting Centre, to talk to the developer of that country’s forecasting system, to study at ECMWF (in time to witness the landfall of Hurricane Sandy), to hobnob with the Royal Society’s elite at a forecasting uncertainty workshop</p> <p>Italy: to find the source of the European Flood Awareness System (one of the most modern river forecasting systems in the world) and to give a guest lecture in a risk management course</p> <p>and finally Cambodia: to shadow Australian hydrologists Terry Malone and Alex Minett during their visit to the Mekong River Commission’s Flood Forecasting Center </p> <p>When passing through the Malpensa airport in Milan there was a plaque on the floor “<em>Tuttu i passi che ho fatto nella mia vita mi hanno portato qui, ora.” </em></p> <p>The translation is “Every step I have taken in my life has led me here, now.”</p> <p>Come Friday when I land home Australia, the pause will end and the direction of flow will change.</p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-2299626437108271242012-11-09T08:55:00.001-05:002012-11-09T12:30:11.391-05:00ECMWF Awarded Noble Prize in Prediction<p>From a <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2012/10/30/sandy-hurricane-models/1668867/">recent story in USA Today</a> about Hurricane Sandy and the performance of the <a href="http://www.ecmwf.int/">European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts</a>: <p><em>AccuWeather's <a href="http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/">Mike Smith</a>, author of Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather [said] "… the bottom line is that forecasters nailed this storm days ahead of its arrival. The people behind Europe's model should receive a Nobel Prize in physics, this was that powerful a moment in w</em><em>eather science."</em> <p>There is no precedent for a <a href="http://weatherbreak2.creighton.edu/?p=850">meteorologist winning the true Nobel Prize</a> (except perhaps the 2007 prize for IPCC and Al Gore). <p>So today I awarded the staff of ECMWF their own “Noble [sic] Prize in Prediction” for the production of exceptional Numerical Weather Predictions during Hurricane Sandy. It was my last day as a visiting scientist there. <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-L0ZobW7Rkns/UJ09ZvCC55I/AAAAAAAAKf8/fhN4e0pBe9o/s1600-h/2012-11-09%25252012.40.32%25255B9%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="2012-11-09 12.40.32" border="0" alt="2012-11-09 12.40.32" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-r6OJwyv2fg8/UJ09al5bSXI/AAAAAAAAKgA/8cGO3crNUTU/2012-11-09%25252012.40.32_thumb%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="522" height="392"></a> <p align="center">The head of the research department Erland Källén (a Swede, right) graciously received the trophy (bottom center) on behalf of the employees (back). <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/--JVpJpbeC3g/UJ09bbyVR-I/AAAAAAAAKgI/ILS3x6LDMKg/s1600-h/2012-11-09%25252011.20.01%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="2012-11-09 11.20.01" border="0" alt="2012-11-09 11.20.01" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-uwQPYAQzuSk/UJ09cLSP48I/AAAAAAAAKgQ/J256Zx8Mm6E/2012-11-09%25252011.20.01_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="515" height="863"></a> <p align="center">On behalf of the operational departments, Erik Andersson (another Swede) and David Richardson (English, but still a nice person) accepted Pop-Tart prizes (bottom) and a mélange of home made cookies (back left). <p>During past disasters retailers report <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/14/business/yourmoney/14wal.html">massive sales spikes in Pop-Tarts and have taken to pre-staging them based on the forecasts</a>: <p><em>The experts mined the [past sales] data and found that the stores would indeed need certain products - and not just the usual flashlights. "We didn't know in the past that strawberry Pop-Tarts increase in sales, like seven times their normal sales rate, ahead of a hurricane," Ms. Dillman said in a recent interview. "And the pre-hurricane top-selling item was beer." </em><em>Thanks to those insights, trucks filled with toaster pastries and six-packs were soon speeding down Interstate 95 toward Wal-Marts in the path of Frances.</em> <p align="left">The monetary prize (a 5 pound itunes gift card) was donated to charity, partly to avoid the inevitable conflicts of dividing it 250 ways among the staff. Others are encouraged to donate to the <a href="http://www.redcross.org/charitable-donations">Red Cross</a> a show of support for those impacted by the national tragedy.</p> <p align="left">USA Today <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2012/10/30/sandy-hurricane-models/1668867/">has a few</a> more stories <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2012/10/30/sandy-forecasting-ecmwf-gfs/1670035/">lauding the European Weather Centre’s forecasts</a>: </p> <p><em>Several days before Sandy came ashore in New Jersey on Monday night, forecasters were warning of a superstorm that would make a highly unusual left turn into the coastline. Anyone who didn't know a big storm was coming wasn't paying attention. This was a triumph of modern meteorology that undoubtedly saved many lives. </em><em>In the era of satellites, supercomputers and instant communications, "surprise" hurricanes, such as the one that killed hundreds of people in New York and New England in 1938, are largely </em><a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/image/hurricane-path/"><em>a thing of the past</em></a><em>.</em> <p><em>But before Americans get smug about their superior scientific sophistication, there is this to consider: Of the two main computer weather-forecasting models, the American and the European, the European was by far the better performer on Sandy. </em><a href="http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/10/stop-sandy-time-wed-1024-update/"><em>In the middle of last week</em></a><em>, the British-based European model, known as the ECMWF, was already showing an unusually powerful storm moving up from the Bahamas and slamming into the mid-Atlantic coast.</em></p> <p>Other good reads include <a href="http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/10/forecasters-absolutely-nailed-this-one/">Forecasters Absolutely Nailed This One</a>, and Mike Smith’s own <a href="http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/this-was-their-finest-hour.html">This Was Their Finest Hour (part 1</a> and <a href="http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/this-was-our-finest-hour-ii.html">part 2</a>). Speaking of institutional competence…</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-wyd8rIZGW14/UJ09dhZj97I/AAAAAAAAKgc/86t990Le9jQ/s1600-h/InstitutionalCompetence%25255B4%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="InstitutionalCompetence" border="0" alt="InstitutionalCompetence" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-QtIDMVigIBA/UJ09egjT4aI/AAAAAAAAKgg/OzLLJKEQ64A/InstitutionalCompetence_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="564" height="358"></a></p> <p align="center">A few days ago the Daily Show had a piece praising the effectiveness of preparations for and response to the storm. </p> <p>The New York Times reports that the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/09/nyregion/new-york-subways-find-magic-in-speedy-hurricane-recovery.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0">subways are operating again</a> only a week after the disaster. </p> <p><em>It has been less than two weeks since the most devastating storm in the New York City subway system’s 108-year history. Seven tunnels beneath the East River flooded. Entire platforms were submerged. Underground equipment, some of it decades old, was destroyed.</em> <p><em>The damage was the worst that the system had ever seen. And yet, the subways have come back — quicker than almost anyone could have imagined. </em><em>Less than three days after the storm hit, partial subway service was restored. Most major lines were back within a week. Repairs came so quickly in some cases that the authority was ready before Consolidated Edison had restored power.</em> <p><em>“Some of what they’re doing borders on the edge of magic,” said Gene Russianoff, the staff lawyer for the Straphangers Campaign, a rider advocacy group that is frequently critical of the authority.</em> <p>The forecasts lead to the protection of critical infrastructure and this is partly responsible for the rapid recovery compared to other disasters. </p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-hpXcOaP-JC4/UJ09fo32paI/AAAAAAAAKgo/jHnCQniBzZY/s1600-h/d1898_121028051328-04-sandy-1028-horizontal-gallery%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="d1898_121028051328-04-sandy-1028-horizontal-gallery" border="0" alt="d1898_121028051328-04-sandy-1028-horizontal-gallery" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-nA8JHT10k8I/UJ09gjl5SoI/AAAAAAAAKgw/kg4d3POmIow/d1898_121028051328-04-sandy-1028-horizontal-gallery_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="316"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://timesofnews.co/2012/10/28/u-s-storm-warning-it-could-be-bad-or-devastation/">Sealing up air vents in the subway</a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-zKv8a_jYrpU/UJ09hegSLzI/AAAAAAAAKg8/6mdAj1Uu1_0/s1600-h/hurricane-sandy-streets-new-york_3%25255B14%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="hurricane-sandy-streets-new-york_3" border="0" alt="hurricane-sandy-streets-new-york_3" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Ga5KCbS_Kj4/UJ09iUSnKyI/AAAAAAAAKhA/XFAuslJbCeg/hurricane-sandy-streets-new-york_3_thumb%25255B5%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="560" height="445"></a></p> <p align="center">More protections of subways</p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-Ga1F0LXl9j8/UJ09jYgOftI/AAAAAAAAKhI/gGVoJXDkAeE/s1600-h/lenox-storm-prep-jpg_980x551%25255B7%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="lenox-storm-prep-jpg_980x551" border="0" alt="lenox-storm-prep-jpg_980x551" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-5-KokPEmkYQ/UJ09kchzcEI/AAAAAAAAKhU/Pr0APTyCLcs/lenox-storm-prep-jpg_980x551_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="561" height="320"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-FO0RgMZOXY0/UJ09lNVbDyI/AAAAAAAAKhc/qUWrSxyXMOc/s1600-h/hurricane-sandy-streets-new-york_9%25255B7%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="hurricane-sandy-streets-new-york_9" border="0" alt="hurricane-sandy-streets-new-york_9" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-pelhzAJbmxI/UJ09mRdD_xI/AAAAAAAAKhk/PeV1wQ7m2Q8/hurricane-sandy-streets-new-york_9_thumb%25255B3%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="446"></a></p> <p align="center">Battening<a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/hurricane-sandy-new-york-braces-storm-photos-855938"> boats</a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-nI3Ty1XxyWA/UJ09nJL_7QI/AAAAAAAAKhs/DV5_HpL0Jow/s1600-h/628x471%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="628x471" border="0" alt="628x471" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-HEEgx5O2RHE/UJ09oT8Q0rI/AAAAAAAAKhw/FAd11qO2vY4/628x471_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="394"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/us/article/Mammoth-storm-Sandy-plunges-NYC-into-darkness-3989215.php#photo-3655315">Removing underground electronics and pumps</a></p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-74507855698927068722012-11-06T07:48:00.000-05:002012-11-06T07:48:38.731-05:00Hurricane Sandy Photos and Recovery Stories<p align="center"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-OFQ7pwYReiM/UJkCwiMbIwI/AAAAAAAAKa4/8tS02qcvaiM/s1600-h/c7XMO%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="c7XMO" border="0" alt="c7XMO" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-duirB56sOF4/UJkCxlaTiiI/AAAAAAAAKa8/pA3CV-2xAo0/c7XMO_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="371"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://imgur.com/c7XMO">Closed due to the apocalypse.</a>(Ocean City)</p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-YmpEBuCW-4c/UJkCy1sOJ-I/AAAAAAAAKbA/AzSK5m0I7y4/s1600-h/BreezyPoint%25255B4%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="BreezyPoint" border="0" alt="BreezyPoint" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-1VlMFk3idT0/UJkCz0h2U1I/AAAAAAAAKbE/scOqe_0Mxho/BreezyPoint_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="550" height="299"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-sandy-pictures-photos2-20121025?goback=%2Egde_1602147_member_180161997">This aerial photo</a> shows burned-out homes in the Breezy Point section of the Queens borough New York after a fire on Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2012. The tiny beachfront neighborhood told to evacuate before Sandy hit New York burned down as it was inundated by floodwaters, transforming a quaint corner of the Rockaways into smoke-filled debris.</p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-v06plAvLMp0/UJkC1EMx-3I/AAAAAAAAKbI/SO9mekLMmOM/s1600-h/eckert-1883_980x551%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="eckert-1883_980x551" border="0" alt="eckert-1883_980x551" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-8pCzOQWgMDg/UJkC2a5GQhI/AAAAAAAAKbM/tnc-nM8nX5w/eckert-1883_980x551_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="314"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-sandy-pictures-photos2-20121025?goback=%2Egde_1602147_member_180161997">Photo</a>: The day after Hurricane Sandy struck New York City sand and muck covers a car in Coney Island in Brooklyn, Tuesday, October 30, 2012. (Charles Eckert/Weather.com)</p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Kc1TmoASE0w/UJkC3OYUHmI/AAAAAAAAKbQ/z34YrN-8hqY/s1600-h/eckert-2396_980x551%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="eckert-2396_980x551" border="0" alt="eckert-2396_980x551" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-7Jf-JtSeFLQ/UJkC4bWDZMI/AAAAAAAAKbU/sjFbvoGKFHI/eckert-2396_980x551_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="314"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-sandy-pictures-photos2-20121025?goback=%2Egde_1602147_member_180161997">Photo</a>: A firefighter who lived in one of the approximately 100 houses destroyed by a fire that resulted from Hurricane Sandy, searches for his wifes wedding ring, in the Breezy Point section of Queens, Tuesday, October 30, 2012. (Charles Eckert/ Weather.com)</p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-zOXfu3PX7p4/UJkC5Bu46OI/AAAAAAAAKbY/2CnPFxFOn8o/s1600-h/AP419204357677_980x551%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="AP419204357677_980x551" border="0" alt="AP419204357677_980x551" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-_78gOH3bHdQ/UJkC57P9hsI/AAAAAAAAKbc/6AXkgHu4ROA/AP419204357677_980x551_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="314"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-sandy-pictures-photos2-20121025?goback=%2Egde_1602147_member_180161997">Photo:</a> Waves wash over a roller coaster from a Seaside Heights, N.J. amusement park that fell in the Atlantic Ocean during superstorm Sandy on Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2012. (AP Photo/Mike Groll)</p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-dNW646T_Q2c/UJkC6_FsbjI/AAAAAAAAKbg/I-3Coj_5rKI/s1600-h/hurricane-superstorm-sandy-hits-asbury-park_60716_600x450%25255B8%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="hurricane-superstorm-sandy-hits-asbury-park_60716_600x450" border="0" alt="hurricane-superstorm-sandy-hits-asbury-park_60716_600x450" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-PgIxtfm91rs/UJkC715fILI/AAAAAAAAKbk/5dev46zhgXA/hurricane-superstorm-sandy-hits-asbury-park_60716_600x450_thumb%25255B3%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="374"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/10/pictures/hurricane-sandy-pictures-floods-fire-snow-in-the-aftermath/#/hurricane-superstorm-sandy-hits-asbury-park_60716_600x450.jpg">Photo</a>: Kim Johnson on Tuesday surveys the destruction around her flooded apartment in Atlantic City, <a href="http://travel.nationalgeographic.com/travel/united-states/new-jersey-guide/">New Jersey</a>—one of several southern New Jersey coastal communities that bore the brunt of <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/153841.shtml?gm_psurge">Hurricane Sandy</a>'s storm surge Monday night. Rivers of seawater gushed down city streets, swamped buildings, and destroyed a section of the <a href="http://travel.nationalgeographic.com/travel/top-10/us-boardwalks/">city's iconic boardwalk</a>.</p> <p align="center"> </p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-nPJRjCxQadE/UJkC8urBceI/AAAAAAAAKbo/ibgpS0GHDHQ/s1600-h/hurricane-superstorm-sandy-hits-burned-homes-breezy-point_60720_600x450%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="hurricane-superstorm-sandy-hits-burned-homes-breezy-point_60720_600x450" border="0" alt="hurricane-superstorm-sandy-hits-burned-homes-breezy-point_60720_600x450" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-x1NnXDlausU/UJkC9aV7hcI/AAAAAAAAKbs/Ci8WSVGSiwo/hurricane-superstorm-sandy-hits-burned-homes-breezy-point_60720_600x450_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="374"></a><a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/10/pictures/hurricane-sandy-pictures-floods-fire-snow-in-the-aftermath/#/hurricane-superstorm-sandy-hits-burned-homes-breezy-point_60720_600x450.jpg">Photo</a>: "We saw the glow and we couldn’t do a thing," deputy fire chief Lou Satriano told the <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/10/30/more-than-80-homes-destroyed-in-breezy-point-queens/?mod=google_news_blog"><em>Wall Street Journal's</em> Metropolis blog</a>. Satriano added that roads were also swamped and the burning homes themselves were standing in several feet of water—all of which gave the blaze time to spread. "It was a domino effect. Houses just caught and caught and caught fire."</p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-f4JsZ3kbhoQ/UJkGNGsGthI/AAAAAAAAKbw/aNajG3QKsV8/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-wide-31851-1352061559-9%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-wide-31851-1352061559-9" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-wide-31851-1352061559-9" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-_A5kZ8m1eG4/UJkGN1ENI6I/AAAAAAAAKb0/xC_txBmHvDM/enhanced-buzz-wide-31851-1352061559-9_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="562" height="381"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/incredibly-powerful-photos-of-hurricane-sandy-dest">A woman</a> sifts through her mother's damaged home for items to save in Breezy Point, Queens.</p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-UJO3WCpg16A/UJkGOxkNeUI/AAAAAAAAKb8/mnnKlGF6HEA/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-wide-21603-1352061933-14%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-wide-21603-1352061933-14" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-wide-21603-1352061933-14" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-_uu5i4rmqBY/UJkGP-KgCXI/AAAAAAAAKcI/iu52n4TB2WQ/enhanced-buzz-wide-21603-1352061933-14_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="352"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/incredibly-powerful-photos-of-hurricane-sandy-dest">Lost photos found.</a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-DDiM1JHB9i8/UJkGQoPWxZI/AAAAAAAAKcQ/YPedXchEU1Y/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-wide-32296-1352063521-17%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-wide-32296-1352063521-17" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-wide-32296-1352063521-17" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-3gbAkIzLEEk/UJkGRqf_uRI/AAAAAAAAKcY/RKXEUMvfC5Q/enhanced-buzz-wide-32296-1352063521-17_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="362"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/incredibly-powerful-photos-of-hurricane-sandy-dest">A church cross stands amid wreckage on the coast of Long Branch, New Jersey.</a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-yINlr7Gmh6E/UJkGSc4J_wI/AAAAAAAAKcg/LXm3XHfeBkk/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-wide-3696-1352064864-6%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-wide-3696-1352064864-6" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-wide-3696-1352064864-6" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-nrQlMqQroiA/UJkGTV3Cy_I/AAAAAAAAKco/iP_Z0LwglW4/enhanced-buzz-wide-3696-1352064864-6_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="332"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/incredibly-powerful-photos-of-hurricane-sandy-dest">A dog named Shaggy is handed from a National Guard truck to National Guard personnel in Hoboken, New Jersey.</a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-FOTG6cl5-nQ/UJkGUFJ9U9I/AAAAAAAAKcw/4VoBXZnnmBQ/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-wide-2307-1352066078-7%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-wide-2307-1352066078-7" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-wide-2307-1352066078-7" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-tWN5lxXL414/UJkGVBhm6NI/AAAAAAAAKc4/VOXGNa-3Iq8/enhanced-buzz-wide-2307-1352066078-7_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="374"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/incredibly-powerful-photos-of-hurricane-sandy-dest">A photograph floats just below the surface of a flooded street in Massapequa, New York.</a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-y6A2rnqDajk/UJkGV3xSW9I/AAAAAAAAKdA/hHGDr-XeCig/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-wide-4148-1352066511-12%25255B8%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-wide-4148-1352066511-12" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-wide-4148-1352066511-12" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-mgQDc7blmk4/UJkGWpBxMSI/AAAAAAAAKdI/Oi2BYRv3wUY/enhanced-buzz-wide-4148-1352066511-12_thumb%25255B3%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="371"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/incredibly-powerful-photos-of-hurricane-sandy-dest">A Virgin Mary is all that remains from a home that was destroyed in Breezy Point, Queens.</a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-8ndoZHE4Avk/UJkC-MjakkI/AAAAAAAAKdQ/iDnhraiSzR0/s1600-h/nyc-hurricane-sandy-13%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="nyc-hurricane-sandy-13" border="0" alt="nyc-hurricane-sandy-13" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-IzmwknTWUwM/UJkC--MqSjI/AAAAAAAAKdU/CnxNUsSja8M/nyc-hurricane-sandy-13_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="412"></a></p> <p align="center">Flood protection examples: <a href="http://www.core77.com/blog/events/nyc_on_hurricane_lockdown_part_3_three_types_of_flood_barriers_from_sad_to_serious_23752.asp">From sad</a>…</p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-dCtPMVgwzRk/UJkC_vTkYZI/AAAAAAAAKdY/QZ19yvl5ydA/s1600-h/nyc-hurricane-sandy-18%25255B5%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="nyc-hurricane-sandy-18" border="0" alt="nyc-hurricane-sandy-18" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-OMYBCfYJWRg/UJkDAaGMXvI/AAAAAAAAKdc/uWXotRX3pus/nyc-hurricane-sandy-18_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="550" height="412"></a></p> <p align="center">… <a href="http://www.core77.com/blog/events/nyc_on_hurricane_lockdown_part_3_three_types_of_flood_barriers_from_sad_to_serious_23752.asp">to serious</a>. </p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-6S_tzqjRZW8/UJkDBJlk51I/AAAAAAAAKaA/_wgDtO9ESb4/s1600-h/Sandbagexamples%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Sandbagexamples" border="0" alt="Sandbagexamples" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Bi-s_aufPg8/UJkDB6vF_mI/AAAAAAAAKaI/PN-zsvBKpRM/Sandbagexamples_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="491" height="230"></a></p> <p align="center">Want to know the real way to defend yourself against floods? Read the <a href="http://www.lrp.usace.army.mil/documents/Corps_Flood-Fight_Handbook_2009.pdf?goback=%2Egde_1602147_member_179659796">Army Corps of Engineers flood fight handbook</a>. </p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-yGnMxzVV1Xs/UJkDCjJnGTI/AAAAAAAAKaU/5vENv--RngQ/s1600-h/AP243539559034%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="AP243539559034" border="0" alt="AP243539559034" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-AwRNfyWxHk0/UJkDDkR_2RI/AAAAAAAAKac/T5ydaTdq3hc/AP243539559034_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="560" height="380"></a></p> <p align="center">Read about the massive pumps that are de-watering New York (at <a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/11/sandy-unwatering-tunnels/">Wired</a> and <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204707104578092974201267776.html?goback=%2Egde_39697_member_181852501">Wall Street Journal</a>)</p> <p align="left">Finally, there’s a <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/superstorm-sandy--seven-days-in-a-divided-city-8280609.html">chronicle of someone’s experience during the days of the flood</a>:</p> <p align="left"><em>As New York sleeps, Sandy speeds up. Morning forecasts presage an ocean-going, full-scale, "life-threatening" weather demon. Lower Manhattan's pavements clear to let it pass. In certain parts, you can cross entire blocks without encountering more than a handful of people. In case you think you've misread that last sentence, that's whole blocks. …</em></p> <p align="left"><em>About half an hour later, with the wind and the rain beating against the windows, the lights go out. Via phone message, word comes of an explosion down by 14th Street. A transformer has blown as floodwaters from the East River sweep into Manhattan….</em></p> <p align="left"><em>After dark on Tuesday, there are two New Yorks: the one with power and the one without any power or mobile phone signal and, in parts, without water….</em></p> <p align="left"><em>Uptown, the world suddenly comes back to life. It's as if nothing has ever happened. The storm debris has been cleared away; shops are open; restaurants are serving hot food.</em></p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-41431377141728079562012-11-04T13:42:00.001-05:002012-11-04T13:45:28.962-05:00After the Storm (Hurricane Sandy)<p>Here’s a brief review of some news items about Hurricane Sandy… </p> <p>The Daily Mail has four giant stories with lots of photos and videos. They will keep you reading for an hour. They cover </p> <p>1. The <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2227307/Hurricane-Sandy-Misery-2-5-million-STILL-power-days-lawlessness-fear-over.html">misery of living without power</a></p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-iJAJQrx-JxQ/UJa2RKMUkCI/AAAAAAAAKRc/85cgm2YOpqY/s1600-h/article-0-15D10729000005DC-735_634x4.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="article-0-15D10729000005DC-735_634x418" border="0" alt="article-0-15D10729000005DC-735_634x418" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-uKBIKNPyTsY/UJa2UTX30BI/AAAAAAAAKRk/csIx2hXngh0/article-0-15D10729000005DC-735_634x4%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="560" height="376"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2227307/Hurricane-Sandy-Misery-2-5-million-STILL-power-days-lawlessness-fear-over.html">Damage at Rockaway Beach</a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-VKghbb5Vgvo/UJa2X70iXaI/AAAAAAAAKRs/vQ4fOnDTo9U/s1600-h/article-2227307-15D3F17F000005DC-460%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="article-2227307-15D3F17F000005DC-460_634x405" border="0" alt="article-2227307-15D3F17F000005DC-460_634x405" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-YCActYDPVlY/UJa2ZnbRH2I/AAAAAAAAKR0/7bQpGDrCxYE/article-2227307-15D3F17F000005DC-460%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="566" height="369"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2227307/Hurricane-Sandy-Misery-2-5-million-STILL-power-days-lawlessness-fear-over.html">Police provided cellphone charging stations</a>. I’ve been at some airport power points that look like this.</p> <p align="left">2. The <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2227092/Hurricane-Sandy-Joy-streets-New-York-power-comes-135-000-Manhattan-Dark-Zone-electricity-return-rest-later-today.html">ecstasy of having your power turned back on</a></p> <p align="left"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-uSZn7Qtr8Yc/UJa2bhL0lOI/AAAAAAAAKR8/DICqOFNfZW0/s1600-h/article-2227092-15D33870000005DC-533%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="article-2227092-15D33870000005DC-533_634x418" border="0" alt="article-2227092-15D33870000005DC-533_634x418" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-aI1nfBEiMjQ/UJa2dG2Wl0I/AAAAAAAAKSE/bGuUM3ej9Ug/article-2227092-15D33870000005DC-533.jpg?imgmax=800" width="570" height="383"></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-oIs6-o7I78E/UJa2gY7EKTI/AAAAAAAAKSM/nOi-5rmM2GE/s1600-h/article-2227092-15CEC55E000005DC-496%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="article-2227092-15CEC55E000005DC-496_634x419" border="0" alt="article-2227092-15CEC55E000005DC-496_634x419" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-YrHuwLSuLlk/UJa2ikVNmdI/AAAAAAAAKSU/XSRdsTDjgss/article-2227092-15CEC55E000005DC-496.jpg?imgmax=800" width="572" height="385"></a></p> <p align="left">3. The <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2227316/Noreaster-hitting-week-bring-flooding-ravaged-coastline-defenceless-seawalls-dunes-washed-away-Sandy.html">next storm that’s approaching the area</a> and the damage done to the shore</p> <p align="left"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-WDI0TlPIqHk/UJa2lx2IOzI/AAAAAAAAKSc/smr-7uFME9I/s1600-h/article-2226618-15CFA79D000005DC-750%25255B1%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="article-2226618-15CFA79D000005DC-750_634x453" border="0" alt="article-2226618-15CFA79D000005DC-750_634x453" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-uidruvd5sbM/UJa2phCrxPI/AAAAAAAAKSk/KFn_cUmBvYE/article-2226618-15CFA79D000005DC-750%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="572" height="416"></a></p> <p>4. The <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2227297/Crown-Heights-Police-make-arrests-frenzy-free-gas-proves-desperate-drivers.html">struggle to get gasoline</a></p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-CVvISBqD2aM/UJa2sJpBkrI/AAAAAAAAKSs/WWrY74F3hrA/s1600-h/article-2227297-15D58132000005DC-382%25255B1%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="article-2227297-15D58132000005DC-382_634x423" border="0" alt="article-2227297-15D58132000005DC-382_634x423" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-fxxLrX9tUr4/UJa2tgDnd1I/AAAAAAAAKS0/tNxx37r5sVY/article-2227297-15D58132000005DC-382%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="564" height="392"></a></p> <p align="left">There are <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/hurricane-sandy-leaves-frenzy-gas-article-1.1196282">frenzies over supplies of gasoline</a> which at one point were declared free (10 gallons per customer, 11,000 gallons total). It was later clarified that emergency services/first responders (even off duty) would have first priority. </p> <p align="left"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-06wJV4_o4zg/UJa2zL6oe5I/AAAAAAAAKS8/aT_M8B5zWYg/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-15884-1351784009-06.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-15884-1351784009-0" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-15884-1351784009-0" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-tzjwlmudO8E/UJa24fnhMpI/AAAAAAAAKTE/G6Gsx3VH0pM/enhanced-buzz-15884-1351784009-0_thu.jpg?imgmax=800" width="523" height="523"></a></p> <p align="center">Now there are <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/ryanhatesthis/15-photos-of-new-yorkers-getting-back-to-work">long lines for transport into Manhattan</a></p> <p align="left">Some coverage of <a href="http://web.orange.co.uk/article/news/sandy_mass_destruction_in_atlantic_city">Atlantic City</a>, picked from <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/topic/9ddb23d5-5e50-466a-a258-3a239811b49f/hurricane-sandy/">USA Today’s general page on Hurricane Sandy</a></p> <p><em>John Paxton, a lifelong resident of Atlantic City, said: "This is the first time I have been down to see it. It is devastating, it looks like a bombed-out area. It is the first time I've seen mass destruction like this." Like many, the 75-year-old ignored evacuation warnings. He showed us how three feet of flood water had even left the food drawers in the bottom of his fridge filled with foul water. His home of 57 years is now caked in mud and sludge. He said: "When I saw the road outside had become a river, there was nothing else to do. I went to bed."</em></p> <p>New York Times documents <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nyregion/in-public-housing-after-hurricane-sandy-fear-misery-and-heroism.html?hp&_r=0">life in public housing after the storm</a>. </p> <p><em>Opened fire hydrants became community wells. Sleep-and-wake cycles were timed to sunsets and sunrises. People huddled for warmth around lighted gas stoves as if they were roaring fires. Darkness became menacing, a thing to be feared….</em></p> <p><em>A few residents shrugged off the hardship, acknowledging that they had been told to evacuate and now were paying the price. “It’s just an inconvenience. Half the world does not have electricity,” said Ralph Lopez, 73… “I grew up in a cold-water flat with no heat at all. And this is just for a week. So boohoo.”"</em> <p>From a <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/summeranne/21-pictures-of-children-in-the-wake-of-hurricane-s">gallery of children after the storm at Buzzfeed</a> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-9PATtQUzXZ8/UJa28yAyHpI/AAAAAAAAKTM/1z_1DSD0o3Q/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-wide-19606-1352044243-9%25255B7%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-wide-19606-1352044243-9" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-wide-19606-1352044243-9" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-vNTA1MCQYBM/UJa3BoLvOaI/AAAAAAAAKTU/pEKxWT2tgVM/enhanced-buzz-wide-19606-1352044243-9_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="566" height="382"></a> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/summeranne/21-pictures-of-children-in-the-wake-of-hurricane-s">“Kate Traina, 14, looks over the rumble of her grandparents house in Staten Island, N.Y., Friday, Nov. 2, 2012.”</a> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-hH9ugdEhiok/UJa3E3rm4DI/AAAAAAAAKTc/49NkKpeseDs/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-wide-14235-1352044492-2%25255B6%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-wide-14235-1352044492-2" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-wide-14235-1352044492-2" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-iRM9wLkPCE0/UJa3HEDrBWI/AAAAAAAAKTk/vQJmvCjlf20/enhanced-buzz-wide-14235-1352044492-2_thumb%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="566" height="876"></a> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/summeranne/21-pictures-of-children-in-the-wake-of-hurricane-s">“At her family's 6th floor apartment in the Red Hook housing project on November 3, 2012 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.”</a></p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-83804020319977107772012-10-31T11:24:00.001-04:002012-10-31T11:24:27.338-04:00Today Show Coverage of ECMWF Forecasts and other Sandy Links<object width="592" height="346" id="msnbc326bb2" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=10,0,0,0"><param name="movie" value="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640" /><param name="FlashVars" value="launch=49620990^10^162140&width=592&height=346" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="wmode" value="transparent" /><embed name="msnbc326bb2" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640" width="592" height="346" FlashVars="launch=49620990^10^162140&width=592&height=346" allowscriptaccess="always" allowFullScreen="true" wmode="transparent" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.adobe.com/shockwave/download/download.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed></object> <p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 5px; width: 592px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background: none transparent scroll repeat 0% 0%; color: #999; font-size: 11px">Visit NBCNews.com for <a style="border-bottom: #999 1px dotted; height: 13px; color: #5799db !important; font-weight: normal !important; text-decoration: none !important" href="http://www.nbcnews.com">breaking news</a>, <a style="border-bottom: #999 1px dotted; height: 13px; color: #5799db !important; font-weight: normal !important; text-decoration: none !important" href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032507">world news</a>, and <a style="border-bottom: #999 1px dotted; height: 13px; color: #5799db !important; font-weight: normal !important; text-decoration: none !important" href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032072">news about the economy</a></p> <p>Yesterday a film crew came and interviewed scientists from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the place where I am currently a visiting scientist. Above is the link and below is part of the transcript. </p> <p><em>“Thousands of miles from the storm here in England, that group of scientists were making cutting-edge calculations last week providing an early warning of the damage Sandy would do. It was a storm warning that must have seemed incredible to some. And because it was so early helped millions of Americans prepare for the worst. One week ago today, last Wednesday, Al [Roker] relayed a dire forecast on “Today” scientists in Europe predicting Sandy would hit the east coast. </em></p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-8e0UOwW4-AA/UJFCjMLuJ3I/AAAAAAAAKHM/T8Hr7QevdsI/s1600-h/ECMWFSandy1%25255B6%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="ECMWFSandy1" border="0" alt="ECMWFSandy1" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-eeJFqBUYxY4/UJFCkdVZ45I/AAAAAAAAKHQ/keDEnYwrO1Q/ECMWFSandy1_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="503" height="326"></a></p> <p align="center">On the right is the prediction from the American model, on the left ECMWF. The European Center pretty much nailed it from incredibly far in advance. This prompted MIT scientist Kerry Emanuel to write a piece in the Wall Street Journal titled <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2012/10/28/why-america-has-fallen-behind-the-world-in-storm-forecasting/">“Why America Has Fallen Behind the World in Storm Forecasting”</a></p> <p><em>The early call came from the European Weather Center in England, 250 staff posting 150 million weather observations every day but have seen nothing like this: A hurricane making a left hook into the Northeast. [To meteorologist] When you first saw this, what was your reaction?</em></p> <p><em>Alan Thorpe: “Obviously we were concerned. Even eight days ahead we could see the tropical cyclone developing. To assess the odds of Sandy hitting the east coast, their super computer had created 51 forecasts; all had one outcome. All took the storm north and then towards the eastern seaboard.”</em> </p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-DTVokfjwmyo/UJFClVtfqfI/AAAAAAAAKHY/GHKopwZlOu0/s1600-h/ECMWFSandy2%25255B11%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="ECMWFSandy2" border="0" alt="ECMWFSandy2" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-vqMyeSnvRzc/UJFCmMD4hdI/AAAAAAAAKHg/Ux6LosoTVfc/ECMWFSandy2_thumb%25255B3%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="469" height="363"></a></p> <p align="center">This is the map room on the second floor of ECMWF. In the middle is Anna Ghelli, a world authority on forecast verification. </p> <p><em>Reporter: By the weekend, the American and European models had converged. Without these forecasts the human cost might have been far worse. [To meteorologist] Essentially you and the other 250 scientists working here probably saved lives?</em></p> <p><em>Meteorologist: I think it certainly motivates all the people who work here”</em></p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-K3TycpzAjLw/UJFCnW015dI/AAAAAAAAKHs/G4RmbUU897k/s1600-h/ECMWFSandy3%25255B6%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="ECMWFSandy3" border="0" alt="ECMWFSandy3" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-MFef5c9j5Iw/UJFCoSnFrSI/AAAAAAAAKH0/hiSnT0_aNKY/ECMWFSandy3_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="512" height="322"></a></p> <p align="center">Alan Thorpe (left) and reporter (right) in front of “The Big Board”. </p> <p>For more updates on the storm, easily the biggest coverage is over at <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2225108/Hurricane-Sandy-2012-Obama-declares-major-disaster-New-York-39-people-die-Superstorm.html">the Daily Mail</a>, lots of large photos and videos. There is a <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/ktlincoln/coney-island-devastated-by-hurricane-sandy">gallery of damage on Coney Island</a>. Early estimates of damage are around <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/9641827/Hurricane-Sandy-US-economy-braced-to-take-15bn-hit.html">$15 Billion</a>, but some as high as $50 Billion- Hurricane Katrina was about $100 Billion. </p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-az2VTOj64jQ/UJFCpbA6kNI/AAAAAAAAKH4/dEACoppFnuA/s1600-h/e4f69d0797d67b1e1f0f6a706700a095%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="e4f69d0797d67b1e1f0f6a706700a095" border="0" alt="e4f69d0797d67b1e1f0f6a706700a095" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-gTbMvXRvb6c/UJFCqBPWiAI/AAAAAAAAKIE/3IQymKXCKrs/e4f69d0797d67b1e1f0f6a706700a095_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800" width="512" height="373"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/photos/casket-floated-grave-cemetery-crisfield-md-effects-superstorm-photo-211848838.html">Caskets floating from a grave in Maryland</a></p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-810629782704464212012-10-30T07:40:00.001-04:002012-10-30T07:44:02.360-04:00Gotham City Flickers Out (Hurricane Sandy)<p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-gm3Lk1022MY/UI-8fTW1WnI/AAAAAAAAKDk/x_Em5uQFO0c/s1600-h/a6agkzqcyaaxwgd_custom-bc9b49d563117%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="a6agkzqcyaaxwgd_custom-bc9b49d5631175c52288b741d527445f8bcc3d67-s6" border="0" alt="a6agkzqcyaaxwgd_custom-bc9b49d5631175c52288b741d527445f8bcc3d67-s6" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-MKUsO32di7o/UI-8gEGeyKI/AAAAAAAAKDs/OtxEcXN9PCU/a6agkzqcyaaxwgd_custom-bc9b49d563117%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="549" height="416"></a></p> <p align="center">The <a href="https://twitter.com/alananewhouse/status/263074182336765953/photo/1/large">skyline of Manhattan</a> is dark. </p> <p align="left">"This will be one for the record books," <a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SUPERSTORM_NYC?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-10-29-21-19-48">said John Miksad</a>, senior vice president for electric operations at ConEdison. "This will be the largest storm-related outage in our history."</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-AluQGwgBleU/UI-8hCsIGyI/AAAAAAAAKD0/ix2fZc53SHs/s1600-h/6283a12f-ea62-4aa0-ba8c-23d90b74be6d%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="APTOPIX Superstorm Sandy" border="0" alt="APTOPIX Superstorm Sandy" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-QYoBgIOgtVw/UI-8h4eCJDI/AAAAAAAAKD8/j57qMfNDjzk/6283a12f-ea62-4aa0-ba8c-23d90b74be6d%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="547" height="371"></a></p> <p align="center">The site of <a href="http://live.nydailynews.com/Event/Tracking_Hurricane_Sandy_2/54267276">Ground Zero has been flooded with sea water</a>.</p> <p>On Tuesday, the <a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SUPERSTORM_NYC?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-10-29-21-19-48">New York Stock Exchange was to be closed again</a> - the first time it's been closed for two consecutive days due to weather since 1888, when a blizzard struck the city.</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-rl7L3tJAmLI/UI-8i4PjiVI/AAAAAAAAKEE/SToMRGFjHyQ/s1600-h/A6augGqCMAARmA_3.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="A6augGqCMAARmA_" border="0" alt="A6augGqCMAARmA_" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-mm2Aybq3HLo/UI-8jt5PnVI/AAAAAAAAKEM/JqbQYgazE0M/A6augGqCMAARmA__thumb1.jpg?imgmax=800" width="519" height="361"></a></p> <p align="center">Twitter’s photo of a <a href="https://twitter.com/PANYNJ/status/263089494805327872/photo/1">PATH station flooding through an elevator shaft</a>. </p> <p>NBC New York has some video of Queens ablaze that looks like a post apocalyptic scene in the Terminator movies. I’m sure when dawn breaks in New York City, the media is going to go completely apeshit. </p> <p><embed width="576" height="324" src="http://media.nbcnewyork.com/designvideo/embeddedPlayer.swf" flashvars="v=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnewyork.com%2Fi%2Fembed_new%2F%3Fcid%3D176371601%26path=//news/local" allowFullScreen="true" AllowScriptAccess="always" /><P></P></embed> <p align="center">An <a href="http://live.nydailynews.com/Event/Tracking_Hurricane_Sandy_2#ixzz2Am6fjFd4">out-of-control six-alarm blaze is ravaging the Breezy Point neighborhood in Queens</a> and has destroyed more than 50 homes, the FDNY tweeted early Tuesd. <a href="http://twitter.com/markchera/status/263144316405440514">FDNY Queens dispatcher directing units to fires, telling them they'll PASS other fires en route!</a> </p> <p align="left"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-0szapWewljs/UI-8kpnhmkI/AAAAAAAAKEQ/sm6GcFoOn6U/s1600-h/A6Z2mAFCMAEJ0m-%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="A6Z2mAFCMAEJ0m-" border="0" alt="A6Z2mAFCMAEJ0m-" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-I6l38wlGERs/UI-8lq2tVRI/AAAAAAAAKEc/k1JuOpcdRdc/A6Z2mAFCMAEJ0m-_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="564" height="325"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://mobile.twitter.com/twcMariaLaRosa/status/263028023463391232">Atlantic City boardwalk in pieces</a>. </p> <p align="left">More on twitter: <a href="http://twitter.com/search?q=%23NYC&src=hash">BREAKING: The water level at the Battery in #NYC has reached 11.25 feet</a>, surpassing the all-time record of 11.2 feet set in 1821.</p> <p align="left"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-9V6MFkxXz3Y/UI-8mSI0YlI/AAAAAAAAKEk/rhnNfFgJFkc/s1600-h/8518750%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="8518750" border="0" alt="8518750" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-4M1TQUIDl3w/UI-8neIQdOI/AAAAAAAAKEs/IpizGYfl9yg/8518750_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="546" height="264"></a></p> <p align="center">Not exactly sure where that number came from, but here’s the <a href="http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-mp/data_plot.cgi?mins=&datum=0&relative=&wl_sensor_hist=w1&unit=1&stn=8518750&datum=0&bdate=20121026&edate=20121103&data_type=wl&type=Tide%20Data&shift=&plot_backup">tide level at the Battery, NY</a>. The blue line is the normal tides, the green line is what was added because of the storm. The red line is the two added together. For the southern tip of Manhattan the storm surge and the high tide’s timing couldn’t have been better (or worse depending on your perspective).</p> <p align="left"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-_KVKTy80dRk/UI-8oVdJkoI/AAAAAAAAKEw/SIKF4sfE03g/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-wide-2963-1351542228-4%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-wide-2963-1351542228-4" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-wide-2963-1351542228-4" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-VHULTdI3woI/UI-8pbok09I/AAAAAAAAKE8/Hyp1S2etaus/enhanced-buzz-wide-2963-1351542228-4_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="577" height="486"></a></p> <p align="center">A <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/atmccann/10-monster-pictures-of-the-frankenstorm-coming-rig">gallery of photos of the storm from space</a>.</p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-G-gXPPDjIpI/UI-8qeC1EGI/AAAAAAAAKFA/kNLh2gP6ly8/s1600-h/lenox-storm-prep-jpg_980x551%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="lenox-storm-prep-jpg_980x551" border="0" alt="lenox-storm-prep-jpg_980x551" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-HojgjJtb65E/UI-8rfky2oI/AAAAAAAAKFM/gzTAyBzZbUU/lenox-storm-prep-jpg_980x551_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="572" height="326"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-sandy-pictures-photos2-20121025">Sandbags and plywood at Lenox rail terminal</a> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-ZM91naby_3s/UI-8sUBbV_I/AAAAAAAAKFQ/ulwRH97NkRk/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-wide-3310-1351544428-6%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-wide-3310-1351544428-6" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-wide-3310-1351544428-6" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-FJLa29p1aHs/UI-8tUuHkFI/AAAAAAAAKFY/FAweVPiV0AI/enhanced-buzz-wide-3310-1351544428-6_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="572" height="434"></a> <p align="center">Some people <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/now-this-is-how-you-prepare-for-a-hurricane">went whole hog when preparing for the storm</a>. In this photo I can see a baseball bat, disco ball, and a Samurai sword. <p><a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/10/29/163900473/sandy-makes-landfall-in-new-jersey-with-punishing-winds-driving-rain">NPR</a> has fewer updates but of bigger stories, whereas <a href="http://storify.com/wnycnews/hurricane-sandy-preparations">WNYC</a> is doing fast updates (WNYC also has <a href="http://project.wnyc.org/flood-monitoring/embed.html">an interactive webpage to show current flooding</a> – drawing on National Weather Service forecasts). The <a href="http://live.nydailynews.com/Event/Tracking_Hurricane_Sandy_2">Daily News</a> is a good source for rapid updates. The <a href="http://www.weather.com/">weather channel has a good photo feed</a>. <p>The <a href="http://54.243.149.253/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=c07fae08c20c4117bdb8e92e3239837e">USGS has a tide mapper</a> that is running a little slow but their <a href="http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?id=ww_current">regular page for river gages</a> is doing alright (at the moment New Jersey is not reporting any data). Eventually I’d like to write a story about the emergency gauges that the USGS installed, but the press releases are <a href="http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3440&from=rss_home">here</a> and <a href="http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/usgs_top_story/sandy/?from=image">here</a>. <p><a href="http://google.org/crisismap/2012-sandy-nyc">Google Crisis Response</a> has a Sandy webpage. </p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-72641385865917647372012-10-29T07:59:00.001-04:002012-10-29T07:59:38.369-04:00A City Without People (Hurricane Sandy)<p>When I came in to work this morning, the “Big Board” at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts had switched from its typical view of Europe to cover the US. It’s clear something major is happening. </p> <p><a href="http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif">Some of the models</a> keep the track out to sea, but most all the other guidance has the storm doing a right hook to the coast. The storm has been described as “<a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/hurricane-sandy-meteorologically-mind-boggling-scientists-say-855295">Meteorologically Mind-Boggling</a>”. </p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-GzxQE_plqBQ/UI5qC9uhWmI/AAAAAAAAJ_Q/xJJFS-onXzQ/s1600-h/storm_18%25255B3%25255D.gif"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="storm_18" border="0" alt="storm_18" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-OxNCP5Xr-ck/UI5qEes8NwI/AAAAAAAAJ_Y/jxTb_CV7RX8/storm_18_thumb%25255B1%25255D.gif?imgmax=800" width="564" height="429"></a></p> <p>A good amount of storm surge will pile up on the coast to the north of the storm. The National Hurricane Center is a <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/030345.shtml?gm_esurge#contents">good source for storm surge info</a>. <a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-TaPuRYu5bdA/UI5qGZlEynI/AAAAAAAAJ_c/R4ssYNNCIHA/s1600-h/StormSurge%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="StormSurge" border="0" alt="StormSurge" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-gOiWDoYbRJs/UI5qHcO5c4I/AAAAAAAAJ_k/gNUHzfYuqJ8/StormSurge_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="468" height="400"></a></p> <p>The light blue along the New Jersey coast is where there’s a 50% of getting more than 6 feet of storm surge. Once the storm hits land, it is expected to remain for a few days, meaning storm force winds for <a href="http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/10/28/the-national-weather-service-statement-sandy-a-very-dangerous-storm/">48+ hours</a>. The NWS issued warnings including phrases such as “… <a href="http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/10/28/the-national-weather-service-statement-sandy-a-very-dangerous-storm/">if you don’t survive</a>”. Additionally</p> <p><em>“One of the meteorologists on staff even provided his contact information, urging those who think the storm is “overhyped” to call and yell at him on Friday if it ends up not being as bad as they think. But, he said, even as they yell at him, he’ll be happy they are safe.”</em></p> <p>To see the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/28/nyregion/hurricane-evacuation-zones.html?ref=nyregion">mandatory evacuation zones of New York</a>, go to this interactive webpage</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-s-PD1dxh5pY/UI5qImbdntI/AAAAAAAAJ_w/WjzjDOW84hw/s1600-h/Evacuate%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Evacuate" border="0" alt="Evacuate" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-LQvhu5QrjiI/UI5qL772jiI/AAAAAAAAJ_4/E-yv6HPxTb4/Evacuate_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="310" height="282"></a></p> <p>And the public transit system is suspended. This has caused some eerie scenes in places like Grand Central Station. The rest of these pictures are from the <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mtaphotos/sets/72157631874082823/with/8132218733/">Metropolitan Transit Authority photo stream</a></p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-OOALxbUjsao/UI5qM9tZijI/AAAAAAAAJ_8/vdlSfIpaLFM/s1600-h/8133043029_402bbaea7b_c%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="8133043029_402bbaea7b_c" border="0" alt="8133043029_402bbaea7b_c" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-vko9JW0dptg/UI5qNtKkZoI/AAAAAAAAKAE/FndQMIl0kFs/8133043029_402bbaea7b_c_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="571" height="326"></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-hYd27gbofus/UI5vfhbXVRI/AAAAAAAAKAg/sVkWEy0mSNg/s1600-h/8133423439_84dd3fa3f1_c%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="8133423439_84dd3fa3f1_c" border="0" alt="8133423439_84dd3fa3f1_c" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-wYjoYl4ZBfo/UI5vgiG4mtI/AAAAAAAAKAk/I7Ws02xvfy8/8133423439_84dd3fa3f1_c_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="571" height="334"></a></p> <p>Workers are protecting critical infrastructure, such as putting inflatable dams at the entrances to the railways: </p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-fokrCq_yZfA/UI5vhGq4C5I/AAAAAAAAKAs/pnUP85ncrHQ/s1600-h/8134049846_09aae16ce4_c%25255B7%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="8134049846_09aae16ce4_c" border="0" alt="8134049846_09aae16ce4_c" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-WS4AZgOKQqA/UI5viTPsDRI/AAAAAAAAKA4/B3-Ka-1YRPk/8134049846_09aae16ce4_c_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="572" height="387"></a> <a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-5k7nAQXUDHo/UI5vjL3noVI/AAAAAAAAKA8/G4pc04E-634/s1600-h/8134022017_d164131205_c%25255B7%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="8134022017_d164131205_c" border="0" alt="8134022017_d164131205_c" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-9t1_NH6cOkQ/UI5vkQCi43I/AAAAAAAAKBI/bXMmCKokHho/8134022017_d164131205_c_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="571" height="383"></a></p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-biEoAnuLNMo/UI5vlHLPmeI/AAAAAAAAKBM/GvJG6b9No6M/s1600-h/8134049328_7b02676d2f_c%25255B7%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="8134049328_7b02676d2f_c" border="0" alt="8134049328_7b02676d2f_c" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-0ZLvU1XtehE/UI5vmJBjuqI/AAAAAAAAKBY/ZSI8Lj3d-x4/8134049328_7b02676d2f_c_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="571" height="386"></a></p> <p>They are also removing sensitive expensive equipment, such as motor switches for the railway. </p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-KwfnWhYtd4U/UI5vnahlYfI/AAAAAAAAKBc/DOYvQ9hjFCI/s1600-h/8132340786_52d2968898_c%25255B7%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="8132340786_52d2968898_c" border="0" alt="8132340786_52d2968898_c" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-5CXuVtnP2Hg/UI5voIo2ZcI/AAAAAAAAKBk/1gXSom4LRSg/8132340786_52d2968898_c_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="460" height="619"></a></p> <p>I have to think of how it feels to be the person issuing the forecasts that are setting all of this in motion. What did that person eat for breakfast this morning? The decision to dismantle hardware and evacuate it is a huge cost to protect. Inflatable dams at subway inlets cost money to buy and set up. That said, it would be dumb to have the inflatable dam and to have not used it at a time like this. </p> <p>I also wonder how they know their protection is going to hold? Who monitors the structure as the water comes up on it, to hold back any leaks? I imagine the workers could stand there and argue about “yeah, that’s not going to hold, water’s going to come in there”. How would you settle a disagreement like that if you’ve never had practice and don’t know how to test it? Clearly people have some bad ideas about what’s effective as flood defenses, such as <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/the-worst-ways-new-yorkers-prepared-for-the-last-h">this buzzfeed roundup</a> from the last New York flood</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-umsQiOd3e-4/UI5vpDH23aI/AAAAAAAAKBs/izYy-yHSpVk/s1600-h/enhanced-buzz-4620-1351262682-4%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="enhanced-buzz-4620-1351262682-4" border="0" alt="enhanced-buzz-4620-1351262682-4" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-qR7OXbKKoHs/UI5vqJDjKoI/AAAAAAAAKB0/0CsCZvAqC98/enhanced-buzz-4620-1351262682-4_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="555" height="423"></a></p> <p align="center">A roll of towels is used to block flood waters from entering a store. </p> <p>Stay dry out there!</p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-56169004356141452272012-10-27T14:59:00.001-04:002012-10-27T14:59:27.794-04:00Frankenstorm’s River Forecasts<p>This coming week, Hurricane Sandy could merge with a snow-bearing cold front to cause major losses along the East Coast of the US. Occurring at high tide, the financial district of Manhattan could be flooded. This trifecta of two storms colliding at high tide has been dubbed the “Frankenstorm”. <a href="http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/icat-on-hurricane-sandy-damage.html">Roger Pielke Jr</a> discusses the projected losses as being somewhere in the $1-$10 billion range, depending on where the storm hits and how strong it is. </p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-YzNoxA3EG6I/UIwu0YPkhCI/AAAAAAAAJ8M/LBp3mN5IG8Q/s1600-h/700874main_20121026_Sandy-GOES_full%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="700874main_20121026_Sandy-GOES_full" border="0" alt="700874main_20121026_Sandy-GOES_full" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-2_ufr0JAS8I/UIwu1oFOv2I/AAAAAAAAJ8Q/YlySQ6bk-WU/700874main_20121026_Sandy-GOES_full_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="570" height="485"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/700874main_20121026_Sandy-GOES_full.jpg">NASA image of Sandy</a></p> <p><a href="http://www.livingontherealworld.org/?p=749">Bill Hooke has an excellent summary of where to go for information</a> and he quotes the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-sandy-scenarios-for-washington-dc/2012/10/25/0ebdb0f2-1ec5-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html">Capitol Weather Gang</a> as saying the scenarios for Washington DC are </p> <p>(A) worst case, – direct hit (on Washington), severe impacts (30% chance);</p> <p>(B) indirect hit, major impacts (N.B. this scenario also implies a direct hit, only north of here, say around New York or New Jersey) (45% chance); </p> <p>(C) glancing blow, minor impacts (but Massachusetts or Maine might still be hit) (20% chance); </p> <p>(D) out to sea, few impacts (5% chance).</p> <p>The best source of information on flooding is the National Weather Service <a href="http://water.weather.gov/ahps/forecasts.php?current_color=all&current_type=all&fcst_type=fcst&conus_map=d_map">Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Page</a>. These are the official “single valued” forecasts that go a relatively short time into the future. </p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-YLGkzKTNRj8/UIwu2VHgI5I/AAAAAAAAJ8c/PeyoGfTIOsM/s1600-h/poun6_hg%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="poun6_hg" border="0" alt="poun6_hg" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-D2Xv6-Rm-OA/UIwu3ihNGlI/AAAAAAAAJ8k/7ILQ_tvbBa8/poun6_hg_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="568" height="448"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=aly&gage=poun6">The forecast for the Hudson River</a> upstream of New York City. The left side is what’s happened in the past, the right side is projected into the future. The oscillations are the ocean tides. </p> <p align="left"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-hu4i7e3n2MM/UIwu46e-YzI/AAAAAAAAJ8s/pXC6eSNjimU/s1600-h/lngp1_hg%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="lngp1_hg" border="0" alt="lngp1_hg" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Jw1nqz6rxR0/UIwu5_86QWI/AAAAAAAAJ80/kwmqW2ZIPWY/lngp1_hg_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="559" height="441"></a></p> <p align="center">Here’s another <a href="http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=phi&gage=lngp1">station northeast of Philadelphia, southwest of Trenton</a></p> <p align="left">The official suite of products does have some information about the chance of flooding reaching different levels. These are the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) products like so</p> <p align="left"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-HKuqru9Jdy4/UIwu7ZZcZsI/AAAAAAAAJ88/ozqXStkzNkc/s1600-h/LNGP1.SSTG.exceed.90day%25255B3%25255D.gif"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="LNGP1.SSTG.exceed.90day" border="0" alt="LNGP1.SSTG.exceed.90day" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-T2tdewmHn4U/UIwu8Pjw9AI/AAAAAAAAJ9A/NsfCzg_LZ6g/LNGP1.SSTG.exceed.90day_thumb%25255B1%25255D.gif?imgmax=800" width="566" height="338"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/period.php?wfo=phi&gage=lngp1">Chance of flooding at Langhorne, PA.</a> </p> <p align="left">The problem with that ESP forecast is that it doesn’t include anything specific about a rainfall forecast, it just assumes a wide range of future rainfall scenarios are possible. </p> <p align="left">That’s obviously not the case now because a hurricane is bearing down on the region. Now the National Weather Service is experimenting with linking the river forecasting models up to various weather forecasting models (in a process called <a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/">MMEFS</a>). Three weather models give a range of possibilities of what could happen. Here are the expected areas of flooding from one model (GEFS): </p> <p align="left"><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-mN_U7VUSyr0/UIwu9SG12FI/AAAAAAAAJ9M/MzE-DRO80o4/s1600-h/GEFSsandy1%25255B6%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="GEFSsandy1" border="0" alt="GEFSsandy1" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-tRTKCJqkxPE/UIwu-0BcwWI/AAAAAAAAJ9U/1lAIphibcdU/GEFSsandy1_thumb%25255B5%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="333" height="229"></a></p> <p align="center"> Purplish dots mean more severe flooding. Square dots mean higher chance of that happening. </p> <p align="left">Here are some more <a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/marfc/GEFS/html/LNGP1.html">charts of Langhorne</a>:</p> <p align="left"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-7_h7UDYoAns/UIwu_105FZI/AAAAAAAAJ9c/MPW18rTNxAI/s1600-h/LNGP1.GEFS.SSTG-NF.traces%25255B3%25255D.gif"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="LNGP1.GEFS.SSTG-NF.traces" border="0" alt="LNGP1.GEFS.SSTG-NF.traces" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-gln-CbOUelY/UIwvA5_HvhI/AAAAAAAAJ9k/FCRL9u5uY-Y/LNGP1.GEFS.SSTG-NF.traces_thumb%25255B1%25255D.gif?imgmax=800" width="568" height="414"></a></p> <p align="center">The possibilities of flows 13 days into the future. Each line is a possible future. </p> <p align="left"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-g1WV8z3y0bo/UIwvB4350XI/AAAAAAAAJ9s/uAfQ-0Unit4/s1600-h/LNGP1.GEFS.SSTG.exceedance%25255B3%25255D.gif"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="LNGP1.GEFS.SSTG.exceedance" border="0" alt="LNGP1.GEFS.SSTG.exceedance" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-UeOlMm5Z71s/UIwvCxYrH9I/AAAAAAAAJ90/CM0smnf85gg/LNGP1.GEFS.SSTG.exceedance_thumb%25255B1%25255D.gif?imgmax=800" width="568" height="409"></a></p> <p align="center">Like the ESP plot, except when you consider the specific weather forecast for the next 13 days. Earlier there was about a 5% chance of a big flood, this now says there’s an over 85% chance. Some of the worst flood scenarios are eye-poppingly high (homes under ~15 feet of water)</p> <p align="left">Naturally, these are experimental forecasts and are dependent very much on where the hurricane actually goes. These experimental products are also not reviewed and approved by a human hydrologist, they are straight from the model, hands-off. In contrast, the official products are inspected and adjusted as necessary by a professional hydrologist who has local knowledge of ongoing conditions. </p> <p align="left">The amazing thing, however, is that every piece of information in this post was freely available on the Internet (from my room in England). Nearly everywhere else that I know of, the river forecasts are only accessible to a select group of people, such as emergency services personnel. They control access through special logins and such. If you have some thoughts on public access to this kind of information, leave a note in the comments section!</p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-30321653787081074342012-10-27T08:31:00.000-04:002012-10-27T08:31:00.877-04:00Order Your Doomsday Device Before the End of the WorldSome believe that the end of the world is coming 21 December 2012 (only 54 days left). If you would like to survive the Doomsday, a Shanghai entrepreneur would like to sell you <a href="http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-10/22/content_15837650.htm">an impenetrable six ton metal bubble</a> for $800,000. Built to 5-star standards, three people can live in it up to a year (other sources say a few weeks). <br />
<a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Yyr94ZYGZRU/UIkxCEycX1I/AAAAAAAAJwA/vzn1An5ISa4/s1600-h/BubblePic1%25255B6%25255D.jpg"><img alt="BubblePic1" border="0" height="523" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-vqCmQJjrmiw/UIkxCvo3FBI/AAAAAAAAJwI/LBttams648w/BubblePic1_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" title="BubblePic1" width="400" /></a><br />
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In August <a href="http://news.uk.msn.com/blog/news-bite-blogpost.aspx?post=d967daaf-c87d-49c5-8243-888792ef1411">the inventor (pictured) got in his prototype</a></div>
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<a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-zohG7_d42SY/UIkxDB4y9QI/AAAAAAAAJwQ/PuSlEWhBoYk/s1600-h/Hillroll%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img alt="Hillroll" border="0" height="306" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-H3blRW5_6Ew/UIkxDjjdJLI/AAAAAAAAJwY/ShjWh7704ow/Hillroll_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800" style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; display: inline; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" title="Hillroll" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://news.uk.msn.com/blog/news-bite-blogpost.aspx?post=d967daaf-c87d-49c5-8243-888792ef1411">rolled it down a hill to knock through a stone wall and landed in a lake.</a> </div>
<a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-j636XUhe9xw/UIkxEKHYBFI/AAAAAAAAJwg/-ysPQMMTXXo/s1600-h/U154P886T1D21477F12DT20120809152901%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img alt="U154P886T1D21477F12DT20120809152901" border="0" height="333" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-OI4QdlYYYQs/UIkxEpZj_BI/AAAAAAAAJwo/dPExdM4ntM4/U154P886T1D21477F12DT20120809152901_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800" style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" title="U154P886T1D21477F12DT20120809152901" width="500" /></a><br />
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It was slightly crumpled but <a href="http://www.ecns.cn/2012/08-09/21477.shtml">the inventor walked out with only a scratch on his chin</a>. </div>
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<a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-8qbqUGyR4HU/UIkxE3IxXjI/AAAAAAAAJww/u80xhUOMiMA/s1600-h/U154P886T1D21478F12DT20120809152950%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img alt="U154P886T1D21478F12DT20120809152950" border="0" height="333" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-6koOqyvrnS0/UIkxFZsAeoI/AAAAAAAAJw4/W51Zo5TBf0Y/U154P886T1D21478F12DT20120809152950_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800" style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" title="U154P886T1D21478F12DT20120809152950" width="500" /></a></div>
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A <a href="http://mno.hu/napkepe/ego-lakas-1097604">smaller prototype was then lit on fire</a>.</div>
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The above events happened in August. <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/china/2012-10/25/content_26898154.htm">The new story</a> is about how 21 people have put in orders for the device. </div>
Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-40239721479571532662012-10-25T12:19:00.000-04:002012-10-25T12:19:00.114-04:0010 Tips to Being a Better Cook and Forecaster<p>“<i>You don't have to cook fancy or complicated masterpieces – </i><i>just good food from fresh ingredients</i><i>” </i>--Julia Child <p>The year before I started my travels I made it a resolution to make a perfect <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macaron">french macaron</a>. I tried every week making dozens of them and failed. They are the most technically difficult of all baked goods, they are what Chefs use when they battle one other. I thought I got close but it wasn’t until I made it to France that I realized how far I still had to go. It is said you don’t “make macarons” you “try to sneak past the macaron gatekeeper”. <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-023jZQ8s4-E/UIUtG__96AI/AAAAAAAAJqE/07Uv2Mr60HE/s1600-h/macaron01%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="macaron01" border="0" alt="macaron01" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-kkWUmzzQ7SA/UIUtHwOjoaI/AAAAAAAAJqI/XrDIBHOhfwo/macaron01_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800" width="500" height="333"></a> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.yummytraveler.com/2012/04/mad-about-macs-macarons.html">The perfect macaron</a>. What usually goes wrong is that their crusts crack or they don’t develop symmetrical feet. <p>Although I walked away defeated, I learned much about cooking and found many parallels with making forecasts and doing hydrologic modeling (there is even an excellent website “<a href="http://www.cookingforengineers.com/">Cooking for Engineers</a>”). <a href="http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/downloads/centennial/article3220060925.pdf">I wrote about this when I was a forecaster in the US</a>: <p><em>Generating a water supply forecast is much like preparing a meal. The freshest, highest quality ingredients (input data) are a necessary but not sufficient condition for a winning dish. A variety of utensils, sharp knifes, and pots and pans of all sizes (forecast tools), all help the chef (hydrologist) transform the ingredients. While presentation (visualization) can increase a dish’s appeal and make a great first impression, ultimately the proof of the pudding is in the tasting (forecast accuracy). There is no last minute spice (except perhaps a vivid color bar and slick product design) that can mask over the results of poor preparation or ingredients.</em> <p><em>Just imagine the challenge of acquisition of data, preparation of guidance, and timely distribution of product. A network of NRCS data collection personnel throughout the Western US gather and prepare the ingredients and send them to the kitchen at the National Water and Climate Center in Portland, Oregon. Immediately, four hydrologists set upon the data, each preparing the equivalent of 150-200 different dishes simultaneously, every one of which has to be just right in its own way. These are then handed off to the NRCS state water supply specialists who have the task of whisking the plates out of the chaos of the kitchen and placing them before thousands of water users. If the product doesn’t satisfy or has gone cold by the time it reaches the decision-maker (e.g., a major storm has dramatically changed basin conditions since the data was first collected), some users don’t hesitate in sending it back to the kitchen with their regards.</em> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-ZF_U6qdpAeo/UIUtIiQXlLI/AAAAAAAAJqU/THwl3CuR0u4/s1600-h/cake%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="cake" border="0" alt="cake" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-SmOZX-e6hKg/UIUtJ_BDeiI/AAAAAAAAJqY/95jEMcBzTQI/cake_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="569" height="431"></a> <p align="center">A going away cake for one of my employees <p>Then last year I wrote a modeling “cookbook” that included these 10 commandments <p>1 Skim the recipe at the start<br>2 Plan your meals<br>3 Taste test at every step<br>4 Clean as you go<br>5 Use high quality ingredients<br>6 Be careful when using substitutions<br>7 Ingredient preparation determines the success of all that follows<br>8 Know your equipment, have the right tools<br>9 Master the way things should be done before experimenting<br>10 Balance taste with presentation</p> <p>Here’s an explanation of each</p> <p>1 Skim the recipe at the start</p> <p>The temptation with any new recipe is to want to dive in and start mixing things up. However, it helps to at least skim all of the instructions to give a feel for what is to come; most importantly, it lessens the chance that you will come to a critical step and lack some essential ingredient. Clearly, it takes experience to understand what is meant by each instruction. Similarly, do not just open up any modeling computer application and start clicking away, assuming that it is all intuitive. <p>2 Plan your meals <p>Cooking, like modeling, has many steps, some of which are time consuming and some of which can be done in parallel with others. Think of what you have to start first and what needs done last. Anything that can wait, should wait. However, also anticipate how the rest of the process will be affected if one part is delayed or has to be done over. <p>3 Taste test at every step <p>A common mistake for modelers is to start the computer doing a long model run only to find out hours or days later that there was some mistake in the code. Start with small tasks and verify that each part is working. Reworking failed long jobs is the epitome of waste and should be avoided at all costs. Monitor early results and do not hesitate to cancel bad model runs in process. That said, realize that the cookie will not taste just like the dough, so learn to recognize what good dough tastes like. <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-o0tsf274ex4/UIU87-m62AI/AAAAAAAAJrE/-gjpC8P4G7I/s1600-h/20120505_220036macaron%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="20120505_220036macaron" border="0" alt="20120505_220036macaron" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-TJmkfl2xu2U/UIU883pe5kI/AAAAAAAAJrM/oNPAtZRzUoI/20120505_220036macaron_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="551" height="336"></a> <p align="center">“Ils sont magnifiques!” A tower of french macarons at the Paris airport. <p>4 Clean as you go <p>It is good to keep a tidy and organized work area. It is more effective to clean many small messes than one giant mess and you don’t want past messes contaminating your batch. Always operate from the assumption that someone else will have to go into your workspace and understand what you have done. As a modeler, name your files and directories informatively (i.e. not “junk1”,”junk2”), and delete or archive non-essential files. Write down where all your various datasets came from and how they were modified. Nearly identical files or folders in several locations (e.g. on several computers) are a recipe for disaster. Keep notes as you go instead of waiting until the end to try and recall what you did. Documenting is like exercising; do not set too ambitious goals (i.e. document every minutiae) only to overwork yourself and give up a few weeks later. Be consistent and practical and it will become easy and routine as you get more practice. <p>5 Use high quality ingredients <p>In most recipes, preparation of ingredients is the most important and time consuming part. Similarly, 60-90% of your effort should occur before the hydrologic model is run for the first time. It almost goes without saying that you would not want rotten and spoiled goods in your dish, but it is surprising how much bad data finds its way into attempted setup of models. Too often people do the modeling equivalent of making the dish, seeing if the result is bad and then trying to guess what ingredient had gone off. <p>6 Ingredient preparation determines the success of all that follows <p>I’ve heard people say “Garbage In, Garbage Out” to describe how bad input data will yield bad results. There is also a variant “Garbage In, Gospel Out” to show how much faith we have in model outputs. People also say that “75% of the effort in finishing your dissertation is getting, reformatting, and cleaning up data. About 20% of it is trying to get all your committee members in one room at the same time for your defense.” I am a firm believer that you should spend about twice as much time as you think you need checking all the input data and fixing those problems before going any further. <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-ShUd0OssZqc/UIVyJ9uP8cI/AAAAAAAAJsE/Bz0-G8Z8ZhE/s1600-h/tom%252520cookies%25255B8%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="tom cookies" border="0" alt="tom cookies" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-vcbCwJ2elcY/UIVyLev3XjI/AAAAAAAAJsM/ez9nLNljqwc/tom%252520cookies_thumb%25255B6%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="250" height="199"></a> <p align="center">Eagerly awaiting the next batch out of the oven. I was likely in tears minutes later. <p>7 Be careful when using substitutions <p>Clearly, one would never substitute flour for sugar because both are fine white powders. But can sweetener be substituted for sugar? Artificial sweetener can be used in tea and coffee but not for baking. Many other metaphors abound; when can pork substitute for beef? Should diesel be substituted for gasoline (for explosions, perhaps, but not for car fuel)? <p>Some hydrologic substitutions are appropriate and others are not. Perhaps most importantly, the forcing data (e.g. rainfall) for model setup must be consistent with what is going to be used to drive the model in realtime. For example, you can’t have lots of missing data when you make a forecast. Similarly, weather forecasts or radar rainfall datasets may not have the same “normal” as was used to set up your hydrologic model. Even if these new rainfall fields are better representations of the true rainfall field than what was used to calibrate the hydrologic model, the hydrologic model may not appreciate this. There is a perennial debate among hydrologists about this issue (is it better to be “right” or “consistent”?). My opinion- forecasting may not the best time to try and teach the model a “hard lesson about reality” that it has not been prepared for. <p>8 Know your equipment, have the right tools <p>It is not necessary to understand a stove’s innards to cook on it, but it is clearly beneficial to understand in a general sense what all the controls are intended to do. This is even true for functions in which the default is commonly used. Software packages often have a zillion options and maybe you won’t use all of them, but invest some time to learn what they are trying to achieve (otherwise you might end up doing something by hand that could already be automated). For cooking, I am a very strong believer in thermometers because ovens are almost never at their advertised temperature. Would you have a chemistry lab without thermometers? <p>9 Master the way things should be done before experimenting <p>It is common for hydrologists to develop their own style when setting up models, perhaps using a series of steps they prefer to go through or set of diagnostics they like to calculate. However, it is best achieve a mastery of the basics before going off and developing new ways of doing things. Learn what good scrambled eggs taste like before charging off with your own technique or falling into a default routine. <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-SUTF2fy1CzY/UIU8-lKxSKI/AAAAAAAAJrU/OBKddyCcKEU/s1600-h/2012-08-22%25252022.30.40mars%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="2012-08-22 22.30.40mars" border="0" alt="2012-08-22 22.30.40mars" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-Mv8_3M_VTBk/UIU8_5XKiDI/AAAAAAAAJrc/ly02C6TayT0/2012-08-22%25252022.30.40mars_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800" width="448" height="276"></a> <p align="center">A deep fried Mars bar I had in Scotland. A local delicacy, it tastes about the same as it looks. <p>10 Balance taste with presentation <p>Diners partly judge a meal based on first impressions. These impressions include presentation, aroma and the initial taste. A poor first impression can be enough to completely turn a diner off a dish. At the same time, cooks can resort to any number of tricks to make a dish appealing, such as serving small portions of off-cuts, ornately decorated with tweezed sprouts. Packing a dish with salt and butter improves the taste but makes it unhealthy. Furthermore, why call a dish “Fingerling mousseline with celery shavings, infused with a sherry-mustard vinaigrette and an emulsion de oeuf and huile de cuisson” when it is only potato salad? <p>Finally, do not be mystified by hydrologic models or mesmerized by technology. Start simple and build complexity as needed. Use plain language to describe products and forecasting procedures. This will help with transparency and confidence building, assisting the user in making healthy decisions to their long-term benefit. Experiment and be daring but also recognize that unfortunately some customers will pounce on imperfections in early products. Resist the temptation to oversell the quality of something, but instead find a group of users eager to try out new things and who will give constructive feedback. </p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-45806312396755705642012-10-23T05:15:00.002-04:002012-10-23T13:55:15.309-04:00Italian Scientists Sentenced to Jail for Failed Earthquake Risk AssessmentFor all my years of writing on the web, I’ve always wanted to post a <a href="http://www.drudgesiren.com/about.php">drudge siren</a> for breaking news. Finally here it is: <br />
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<em><span style="font-size: x-large;">GUILTY…</span></em></h3>
The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20025626">BBC</a> and the <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2221417/LAquila-earthquake-Italian-scientists-official-jailed-6-years-failing-predict-2009-disaster.html">Daily Mail</a> have some coverage on the news side of it. There’s also the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/22/italian-scientists-jailed-earthquake-aquila">Guardian</a>. If you want deeper coverage, <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html">Nature has an excellent page</a>. <br />
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UPDATE: As usual <a href="http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/mischaracterizations-of-laquila-lawsuit.html">Roger Pielke Jr has some astute analysis</a>. He quotes another source as saying "prosecutors didn't charge commission members with failing to predict the earthquake but with conducting a hasty, superficial risk assessment and presenting incomplete, falsely reassuring findings to the public." Basically (I think?) the commission quickly dismissed a dissenting voice (who turned out to be right).<br />
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From the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/22/italian-scientists-jailed-earthquake-aquila">Guardian</a>: <br />
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<em>An Italian judge sent shockwaves through the scientific world on Monday when he sentenced seven of the country's leading experts on natural disasters to six years each for giving false assurances before the earthquake </em><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/07/italy-earthquake-laquila"><em>that hit the city of L'Aquila in 2009</em></a><em>.</em><br />
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<em>…The prosecution, which brought charges of multiple manslaughter, maintained that lives could have been saved had people not been persuaded by the assurances to remain in the area.</em>
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<em>The sentences handed out by judge Marco Billi were higher than those demanded by the prosecution, which had asked for the accused to be given four years each. The judge also imposed lifetime bans from holding public office and ordered the defendants to pay compensation of €7.8m (£6.4m).</em>
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<em>Marcello Petrelli, a lawyer for one of the experts, called the outcome of the trial "astounding and incomprehensible". In </em><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/italy"><em>Italy</em></a><em>, convictions are not considered definitive until after an appeal, so it is unlikely that any of the defendants will go to jail immediately.</em>
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<em>But the sentences are expected to cause uproar among scientists worldwide. Several international bodies had warned that a guilty verdict could deter scientists from advising governments in future</em>
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<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20025626">BBC</a>’s Jonathan Amos has some good analysis:<br />
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<em>The decision to prosecute some of Italy's leading geophysicists drew condemnation from around the world. The scholarly bodies said it had been beyond anyone to predict exactly what would happen in L'Aquila on 6 April 2009.</em><br />
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<em>But the authorities who pursued the seven defendants stressed that the case was never about the power of prediction - it was about what was interpreted to be an inadequate characterisation of the risks; of being misleadingly reassuring about the dangers that faced their city.</em>
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<em>Nonetheless, the verdicts will come as a shock to all researchers in Italy whose expertise lies in the field of assessing natural hazards. Their pronouncements will be scrutinised as never before, and their fear will be that they too could find themselves embroiled in legal action over statements that are inherently uncertain.</em>
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Thanks Mike Cranston for the tip!<br />
<br />Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-4388798002895686352012-10-17T09:37:00.001-04:002012-10-22T04:06:53.575-04:00Is Man Bad for Nature?<p>This week I’m enjoying reading a <a href="http://iahs.info/hsj/356/356Education.pdf">classic publication on education in hydrology</a>. The introduction included portraits of the authors, which is unusual for a journal article. All of them are titans in the field. Indeed, this is the first time I had seen a picture of Nash, one of the first people to call himself a “hydrologist”. His name is also on the “Nash-Sutcliffe Score”, the most widely used measure of how different a hydrologic simulation (or forecast) is from what actually happened. </p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-jRA3ATPxSiI/UH60j55r1DI/AAAAAAAAJhs/e5_UE0-2ajw/s1600-h/image%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-dmOJgWzXaTQ/UH60k2uwh4I/AAAAAAAAJhw/DH9ga8dfPJU/image_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="546" height="219"></a></p> <p>Nash writes (in 1990):</p> <p><em>It is fashionable to regard man's involvement in nature as almost always bad. It is true that ignorance (often spurred on by greed) is leading to progressive damage to the natural environment and that we require as much scientific understanding as possible of the relevant processes in order to diagnose our mistakes and put them right. On a more positive note, however, man's ability to control his environment, to improve it and to make it more enjoyable, and indeed more productive and profitable, depends just as centrally on putting our understanding of hydrological processes on as sound a scientific basis as we can manage.</em></p> <p>The University of British Columbia Forest Department has a list of <a href="http://faculty.forestry.ubc.ca/alila/FamousQuotes.html">other great quotes from famous hydrologists</a>. Another good quote is this one from <a href="http://faculty.forestry.ubc.ca/alila/fameQuotes/quote11.html">Morton in 1983</a>:</p> <p><em>“The current state of the art is that of a car spinning its wheels while stuck in a swamp, with frenetic computer applications making the problem worse by devaluing human judgment and experience.”</em></p> <p><a href="http://iahs.info/hsj/356/356Education.pdf">Nash J.E., P.S. Eagleson, J.R. Phillip, and W.H. van der Molen, 1990, The education of hydrologists (Report of the IAHS-UNESCO Panel), Hydrological Sciences Journal, 35(b):12.</a></p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-71756761763459010842012-10-16T11:22:00.000-04:002012-10-15T11:39:51.149-04:00Volcano Fever (part 4): A Night on the Mountain<p>(This is part four of a series on a visit to Virunga Park in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to see Africa’s most active volcano, Mt Nyiragongo. We pick up the story just as the lava lake first came into view. Read parts <a href="http://tompagano.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/volcano-fever-democratic-republic-of.html">one</a> and <a href="http://tompagano.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/volcano-fever-part-2-from-uganda-to.html">two</a> and <a href="http://tompagano.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/volcano-fever-part-3-in-heart-of-fire.html">three</a>). <p>When Nature gets truly stunning, I tend to put away the camera. I’ve tried to photograph things like the Grand Canyon, but always find myself thinking that a picture could never capture the enormity of being there. Nyiragongo is one of those colossal landscapes. That said, <a href="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/04/nyiragongo-volcano/finkel-text/">National Geographic</a> comes close to what it was actually like: </p> <p><em><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-f3ILADytZbU/UHwqaNf8ZFI/AAAAAAAAJeI/LmWWH99kMCg/s1600-h/VolcanoPeters3%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="VolcanoPeters3" border="0" alt="VolcanoPeters3" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-XJQ713UxnlY/UHwqb4darhI/AAAAAAAAJeQ/xZ57uNM6ETg/VolcanoPeters3_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="560" height="378"></a></em> <p align="center">The lava lake at the center of the volcano. From <a href="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/04/nyiragongo-volcano/peter-photography">National Geographic</a>. <p><em>The lake was 700 feet across—one of the largest in the world—with a mesmerizing kaleidoscopic surface. Black plates were cut by jagged cracks of orange, violently shifting and roiling. One moment the crust took the form of a shattered windshield, then it coalesced into a jigsaw puzzle, then a ragged map of the world. The lake roared like a jet plane taking off and emitted a thick white plume of dozens of deadly gases. "The whole periodic table is churning in there," Sims said.</em> <p><em>Even from the rim the scientists could feel the heat. The 1800°F lava exploded from the lake in electric orange geysers, several every minute—25 feet high, 50 feet, 100 feet, bursting into evanescent arches of liquid rock morphing from orange to black in midair as they cooled. The lake seemed to breathe, expanding and contracting, rising and falling, its surface level changing several feet in a matter of minutes, spectacular and terrifying at once.</em> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-GvAZ1jJqZbc/UHwqd_2wSFI/AAAAAAAAJeY/rbzg46JlyQQ/s1600-h/VolcanoPeters2%25255B7%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="VolcanoPeters2" border="0" alt="VolcanoPeters2" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-_OPCPciTzlw/UHwqfeukR_I/AAAAAAAAJeg/NVPsi4uTZ4Y/VolcanoPeters2_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="560" height="377"></a> <p align="center">The ever-changing kaleidoscope of lava (see a <a href="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/video/player#/?titleID=lava-lake-tectonics&catID=1">time lapse video here</a>). From <a href="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/04/nyiragongo-volcano/peter-photography">National Geographic</a>. <p>In that article, a scientist climbed down into the volcano to the shore of the lava lake to collect a sample: <p><em>As he approached the spatter cone, the lava crunched like eggshells beneath his feet. The rim was 40 feet high, the wall nearly vertical, requiring rock-climbing skills to ascend. He started up, stretching for handholds and foot placements, drenched in sweat inside the suit. When he was ten feet from the top, spotters described to him over the radio the level of the lava, where it was exploding, where it was spilling over. Conditions changed by the minute. He was five feet away. Then three. Suddenly his foot slipped, and he smelled burning rubber. Looking down, he saw his shoe melting out from under him.</em> <p><em>But he kept going. He peeked over the top, eye to eye with the boiling lava. This was beyond science. This was personal, the culmination of a lifetime of exploration and adventure and tireless curiosity. Over the radio the emotion in his voice was palpable. "Amazing. Incredible. I'll never see anything like this again."</em> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-lEAnvA1VttI/UHwqiZKv2sI/AAAAAAAAJeo/4IbFxh01sNc/s1600-h/CarstenPetersVolcano1%25255B7%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CarstenPetersVolcano1" border="0" alt="CarstenPetersVolcano1" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-aLbEmcq1WjI/UHwqko66OdI/AAAAAAAAJew/aQK4n1sN0zw/CarstenPetersVolcano1_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="560" height="379"></a><a href="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/04/nyiragongo-volcano/peter-photography">National Geographic’s</a> original caption: <em>A member of the expedition walks on the caldera's cooled lava floor, turned red by the reflected glow of the lake. "Down here you feel the volcano," says photographer Carsten Peter. "It's a low-frequency rumbling that pulses through your body—like being inside a giant subwoofer."</em></p> <p>Throughout the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, we stood at the rim of the volcano, entranced by the ever changing lava. As the wind shifted direction, we would either be treated to breathtaking views or enveloped with skin-tingling noxious gases. </p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-W9UCD82GJHc/UHwql3TYK5I/AAAAAAAAJe4/ohLCLdHDjMY/s1600-h/view_from_rim_20120321_175008%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="view_from_rim_20120321_175008" border="0" alt="view_from_rim_20120321_175008" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-wF3_i6eFa_U/UHwqnVo0jCI/AAAAAAAAJe8/8NSz1sBp6pI/view_from_rim_20120321_175008_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="571" height="304"></a></p> <blockquote> <p align="center">My photo from the rim. </p></blockquote> <p align="left">Much of the time at the rim was spent in humbled silence, with the occasional “I’m not even sure what to say here. Can I just say “wow” again?” There were discussions about who was getting too close to the edge and that, yes, some tourists did die recently by falling in. </p> <p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-D8UbNXg5dtw/UHwqodUwzOI/AAAAAAAAJfI/fEhAgvj1_8s/s1600-h/congo5%25255B11%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="congo5" border="0" alt="congo5" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Ht48Cz3-FvY/UHwqphg9N_I/AAAAAAAAJfQ/Ihg6ihLZubw/congo5_thumb%25255B3%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="558" height="341"></a></p> <p>We were forced off the rim when the view was obscured by smoke or the wind was too cold. I was in the minority when I suggested that building a fire was the <em>last </em>thing we should do (otherwise our instincts would be to want to stay by the fire and not do anything else- True? Please comment!). We cooked our dinner over the campfire and tried to find ways to dry our clothes while staying warm. I shared a bottle of “Safari Cane” (250 proof) with our porters and don’t remember much after that. </p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-39191816411027769992012-10-11T06:38:00.000-04:002012-10-11T06:38:00.860-04:00Dear Forecasters, Cheer Up or We’ll Sue<p>The British Met Office’s forecasts for rain are apparently keeping visitors away from a tourist attraction. The owners are threatening to sue unless the forecasts get sunnier.</p> <p>It is hard to tell from the article what exactly the problem is. It may be that there’s too large of an area lumped together, that it’s wet in one place but the whole region is painted with a rainy forecast. There could also be a time issue, e.g. it rains 10 minutes, but is sunny the rest of the day. There also could be a fundamental forecast skill issue, e.g. when they say 80% chance of rain today, it only rains on 20% of days. </p> <p> <a href="http://www.independent.ie/weather/british-met-office-facing-legal-action-over-pessimistic-forecasts-3249005.html">The Independent</a> gives some quotes from local users: </p> <p><em>“The Met Office seems to come up with such pessimistic forecasts predicting chances of rain when we're enjoying sunshine. </em><em>We've had a lot rain - that's why it's nice and green. </em><em>But it's important for the tourist industry that when we do have sunshine we need to be shouting about it rather than saying there might be some chance of rain. </em><em>The Met Office forecasters need to realise that everything they say has an impact on whether people go on holiday or go for a day out."…</em> <p><em>"People just hear the word rain and that puts them off going somewhere for the day. There's a difference between that goes on for two or three hours and rain that lasts ten minutes in a shower and then passes through."</em> <p><em>"It is already causing holiday-makers to stay away,” she said. “Just a few days ago we were hearing that all caravan parks in the West Country were on flood alert, and this simply wasn't the case.”</em></p> Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-70809551784580659782012-10-10T05:59:00.000-04:002012-10-13T17:58:04.943-04:00Volcano Fever (part 2): From Uganda to the Congo<p>(<a href="http://tompagano.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/volcano-fever-democratic-republic-of.html">Read part 1 of this series here</a>. My friend Kelly and I made an impromptu trip to the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virunga_National_Park">Virunga National Park</a> to see Africa’s most dangerous volcano). <p>At sunrise Kelly and I left Rwanda headed for the Uganda border. We were trying to cross into the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), but were having to go this roundabout route because we were unable to secure a visa. Our fixer was getting tired of our peppering him with questions about all the things that could go wrong. <p>“No problem, no problem.” <p>Some part of us thought we were blowing it all out of proportion. But another part remembered that this was an active war zone, and that that must count for something. <p>Our risk assessment of the situation swung from one extreme to the other. Surely we were doomed, our fixer was going to dump us off and we would be snatched up by bandits within minutes. An hour later we thought we were magic, that bad things only happened to other people. </p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-JVEjT5CndBk/UHGTPOdvuOI/AAAAAAAAI8E/451Xfp4XFA0/s1600-h/VolcanoPeters%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="VolcanoPeters" border="0" alt="VolcanoPeters" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-_WDsmFSp8EQ/UHGTQz7jHXI/AAAAAAAAI8M/0zobnybCGlw/VolcanoPeters_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="554" height="349"></a></p> <p align="center">Surely we would die instantly if we got near this… or be able to walk across it without getting hurt. (<a href="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/04/nyiragongo-volcano/peter-photography">Photo from National Geographic</a>) <p>Much of my work involves understanding how to make decisions under uncertainty. Kelly was nearly ten years younger than me and so I told myself that I was going to keep her from being reckless. However, she was also with the military and had a few of her own crazy stories. She was secretive about her work, often describing herself only as “an engineer”. <p>Part way through the morning I turned on the recorder and started to narrate. I joked that this was just in case they found our bodies and wanted to reconstruct the record of what happened. Much of what followed comes directly the transcriptions: <p><strong>Get Thee to the Reverend</strong> <p>(tape begins) <p>Tom: “Ok so we’re in Kisoro, Uganda at the Virunga hotel.” I was inside dropping off our backpacks because we were only taking the bare minimum into the Congo. The morning began on a surreal note when Kelly was accosted by a religious fanatic. <p>Kelly, upset, interrupted: “That lady won’t stop talking to me. It was really confusing and they were all laughing and kept telling me she was crazy but then she kept poking my face.” <p>Tom: “Poking your face?” <p>Kelly: “Only a couple of times, but she kept asking me if I had seen the Reverend Laviv (sp?), the preacher.” <p>Tom: “Is this the lady here?” <p>Kelly: “Oh no, she’s coming-” <p>A thin but otherwise normal-looking 30-40 year old Ugandan woman approached. <p>Tom greeted her: “Hello! How are you? (off microphone talking, unintelligible) Sorry, you are asking if we are dying of “the cancer of the sex?” (more inaudible unintelligible reply) <p>Tom asked: “So… what should we do?” <p>She swayed close to microphone and rambled (audibly but still unintelligibly): “What we should do? Yes, you me and the rest of the town to be kind, to have compassion. Because of the priss (?) of non-nongella of Noah (?), the sex, you are dying, yes. Come to the rest of the Rhine (?), because of my freshman dine (?).” <p>A pregnant silence followed. The question marks continued to float around us. <p>Tom: “Right… Ok thanks!… Merci beaucoup.” (end of tape) Already I had forgotten that Uganda’s colonial language was English, French was spoken in DRC and Rwanda. <p>The tape started again in a moving car, driver and guide laughing. Tom: “(sighing) I wasn’t quite expecting to hear about “the cancer of the sex” this morning. Usually I don’t hear about that until (checks watch) after 7 am…. Did you understand anything she was saying?” <p>Kelly: “I heard “compassion” and “Qbert” and “my river”, but “cancer of the sex” was a standout.” <p><strong>Sneaky Pictures</strong> <p>The taped ended and continued after some driving. <p>Tom: “Right, in front of us we have a truck completely chock-a-block with riot guards in body armor.” <p>Kelly: “Who are these soldiers on the truck?” Some were standing, others hanging off the sides. <p>Driver: “These are the policemen, they are deploying them to various places to work.” <p>Kelly: “That would be an awfully cool picture.” <p>Tom: “(laughing) Yeah NO… no pictures of the police.” <p>The car went quiet as Kelly steadied her camera lens next to the driver’s headrest. The driver maneuvered to get closer to the truck. He asked “Are you good at taking sneaky pictures?” <p>Kelly: “…I’m the best.” (shudder sounds) <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-c999yJID3ic/UHGTR61G5nI/AAAAAAAAI8U/r870InZDHG0/s1600-h/congo9%25255B10%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="congo9" border="0" alt="congo9" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-nrODZFt86QI/UHGTTLYps6I/AAAAAAAAI8c/Zvw1R-CUwuY/congo9_thumb%25255B3%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="569" height="447"></a> <p><strong>Crossing Over Borders</strong> <p>Shortly before we crossed from Uganda into the DRC, we picked up the guard and gave him a ride to work. When we first got there, a giant crowd of people was waiting to cross the border. We got escorted to the front of the line and passed everyone standing silently for a flag-raising ceremony. We handed our passports and money to the guard as he went inside. <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Vg1xPoJF3kY/UHGTUealNbI/AAAAAAAAI8k/WVlS_PX_Ts4/s1600-h/congo7%25255B14%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="congo7" border="0" alt="congo7" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-0SeXp-jzNEc/UHGTVqbFqpI/AAAAAAAAI8s/aFKCyLdQzKM/congo7_thumb%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="570" height="341"></a> <p align="center">This is the last we’d see pavement for a while <p>We saw many men in many kinds of uniform. I wondered if some people showed up in uniform for fun? Perhaps they made their own uniforms and hoped to be offered a border guard job someday. <p>When they finished the ceremony and rang the opening bell madness erupted and everyone started walking across the first border through a narrow gate. There were people with bicycles, carts, large sacks of goods and so on. There were elderly men and women doubled over from weight of the firewood they carried on their heads. <p align="center"><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-m5xADbPtoDg/UHGTXOrTI_I/AAAAAAAAI80/Efx2B4G1oIg/s1600-h/congo8%25255B17%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="congo8" border="0" alt="congo8" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-UToemp0tSaQ/UHGTYm4m_pI/AAAAAAAAI88/NMX0Im3XxZE/congo8_thumb%25255B5%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="571" height="433"></a> Kelly jumped for joy at the border <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-kNwobrtdqzc/UHGTaY5JJ-I/AAAAAAAAI9E/_tY4C9MHGw0/s1600-h/congo6%25255B13%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="congo6" border="0" alt="congo6" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-tdsnlcb1SpA/UHGTbYGKmAI/AAAAAAAAI9M/w3SUIM-VYYU/congo6_thumb%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="568" height="431"></a> </p> <p align="center">I jumped and got stuck. Someone had to come get me down. <p>I asked to go in the guards’ latrine because I have an ongoing experiment to find the worst toilet in the world. This one wasn’t so bad, a simple but clean hole in the floor. It was locked and out behind the main office. There, the guards were literally doing some “back door” business- three guards were hustling down a smuggler who was trying to bring goods across the border. There was money passing between the smuggler and the guards and they were threatening him “either you’re going to give us some money or we’re going to take your stuff”. <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-2P4ESdbPttg/UHGTdBfuGDI/AAAAAAAAI9U/9pf8qhd46tM/s1600-h/20120321_074125%25255B6%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="20120321_074125" border="0" alt="20120321_074125" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-CSrppjt9p_g/UHGTeMmTAqI/AAAAAAAAI9c/1KaCWJ-l9gY/20120321_074125_thumb%25255B3%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="564" height="351"></a> <p align="center">The latrine at the border <p>On the other side of the border we met a new driver in a more rugged vehicle. Within minutes we reached “the end of the road” (according to Google Maps) and came to a gate that was closed. Our fixer got out and opened the gate and we passed through to the rutted dirt road beyond. <p><strong>Kaindo and Shako Go Off the Map</strong> <p>The difference between Uganda and the DRC was stark, even over such short distances. DRC was decidedly wetter and greener, full of oversized banana trees. It was the kind of place you could dig a hole, go make a sandwich and by the time you returned it would’ve grown back. <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-fG0XBxM7Akg/UHGTflDMDMI/AAAAAAAAI9k/vfmMeT0-3Dw/s1600-h/congo3%25255B10%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="congo3" border="0" alt="congo3" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-O41nY8SVx7Y/UHGThA_x-NI/AAAAAAAAI9s/lxNRp8BL7_Q/congo3_thumb%25255B3%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="472" height="358"></a> <p>We briefly stopped at a river crossing where a woman was washing her clothes. We were told we had to rush because we were getting late. We crashed into pothole after pothole at full speed; “My favorite is when the bump is so hard that the windshield wipers go on”. Soon the tape started again… <p>Tom: “(laughing) Any more narration? Ok, so we just blew out a tire on a dirt road an hour away from nowhere (pause) Are we getting out?” (tape ends) <p>Within a minute of breaking down, three armed guards (Park rangers? Military? Paramilitary?) on patrol walked down the road and assisted us. The tire was shredded and needed replacing. The car was jacked up and tire removed. Then the jack broke and the car collapsed to the ground in a big crash. We lifted it out of the mud and tried to put it on a stack of rocks. Unsuccessful. <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-ZWTGWN4MKtY/UHGTim3Kw8I/AAAAAAAAI90/EaxtdIuBD4c/s1600-h/congoA%25255B12%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="congoA" border="0" alt="congoA" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-aeJQ7kwdcog/UHGTkMuLs6I/AAAAAAAAI98/ry6yC3-g39M/congoA_thumb%25255B5%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="557" height="414"></a> <p>The military waved down a passing van but it still drove through. A second overcrowded vehicle stopped and provided a new jack. <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-10wfPx0bsuI/UHGTle5ycHI/AAAAAAAAI-E/vWZlBrDEZ6w/s1600-h/congoE%25255B7%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="congoE" border="0" alt="congoE" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-lEQ2QA6V-gs/UHGTmjiVDqI/AAAAAAAAI-M/1q1hNJ-Oyr4/congoE_thumb%25255B3%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="555" height="475"></a></p> <p align="center">A Samaritan got covered head to toe in mud scrambling under the car to make sure it was stable. If you look closely, you can see the stack of rocks under the car on the left. </p> <p align="center"><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-9mu5EecEJCw/UHGTn6Z_Y1I/AAAAAAAAI-U/-YXkifAXdWM/s1600-h/congo1%25255B13%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="congo1" border="0" alt="congo1" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-PzQWg-dwOBQ/UHGTpGYD47I/AAAAAAAAI-c/5dXZra2AWY8/congo1_thumb%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="476" height="386"></a></p> <p align="center">A creepy bug wandered by.</p> <p align="left">The soldiers laughed and shared stories and cigarettes with us. We showed each other how to do different handshakes. When we asked their names they said their English names (e.g. Robert, Louis, etc). We asked for their African names… Would give us African names? The leader called Kelly “Kaindo”. From the way the other guards laughed, I had to imagine the translation was “beautiful woman”, or some military variant. </p> <p>I was named “Shako”. When asked why he picked that name he said Shako was his brother who died. <p align="center"></p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-I4oLr0mgwlE/UHGTqpQIl_I/AAAAAAAAI-k/HjNno_Akp6c/s1600-h/congo2%25255B10%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-left-width: 0px; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" title="congo2" border="0" alt="congo2" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-uEOovhDCwSk/UHGTrqVqi0I/AAAAAAAAI-s/elFq-6HzyZc/congo2_thumb%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="556" height="430"></a></p> <p>A minute after starting up again we passed the van that did not stop for us earlier. The others now had a flat tire. Kelly remarked “That is Karma for you”. Then she discovered her new camera was suddenly no longer working. That is why I don’t ever say things like “That is Karma for you”. <p>The lush rainforest abruptly gave way to rocky grassland as the volcano came into view. Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7398091196418941706.post-86611991559786103462012-10-09T04:45:00.000-04:002012-10-09T04:45:00.698-04:00Royal Society Uncertainty Workshop<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Last week I participated in the Royal Society's workshop on uncertainty and prediction in weather, climate and applications. It was an interesting mix of weather scientists, social scientists, users and the media. I particularly enjoyed the discussions around the communication of uncertain information, comparing weather forecasting to other fields such as economics, medicine and so on. There are apparently some big changes underway at the UK Met Office and the BBC, moving away from "single valued" forecasts and more towards ranges and probabilities. An example of a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19650773">well presented BBC forecast is here</a> (the first case of using scenarios at the BBC, apparently).<br />
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The audience was a veritable "who's who" in the field. For example, I've been a long-time reader of Judith Curry's Climate etc. blog and she's<a href="http://judithcurry.com/2012/10/02/rs-workshop-on-handling-uncertainty-in-weather-climate-prediction-part-i/#more-10086"> posted her own background material on the workshop</a>, including links to the agenda and so on. Her post already has close to 300 comments so anyone interested in this field should take a look.<br />
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In the Dovecote (Pigeon house) with heads of the river forecasting systems for Bangladesh and Pakistan (Peter Webster, center) and Europe (Florian Pappenberger, right). Suitably blurry for an uncertainty conference. </div>
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Perhaps the most interesting analogy for me came during the closing remarks. Tim Palmer noted how the building for the conference was the home of Alan Turing during World War II. Turing is the father of artificial intelligence and put forward that a machine is said to "think" if a human could have a conversation with it (e.g. "what did you think of last night's football?") and the human couldn't tell that he was talking with a machine. Similarly, weather models have become so good that one can look at their output and see extremely realistic features, such as the size and shape of storms. We can't say the same for climate models, their results are still fairly cartoonish. I wonder what could be said for hydrology models? </div>
Thomas Paganohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06121193310607983711noreply@blogger.com1