This from a recent interview with Obama on 60 minutes
"The thing about gut instinct is if it works, then you think, "Boy, I had good instincts." If it doesn't, then you're gonna be running back in your mind all the things that told you maybe you shouldn't have done it."
I waffle around a lot about the value of instincts. In my mind, I always have line of "Yes, but..."s ready to go on any decision. Looking back, any or all of them could have been right. But history is written by the victors, so I forget the wrong instincts and remember the right one. Instincts are always plural, a chorus of notes, one or two bound to be in-tune.
Probably one of the biggest ways my personal philosophy changed (by being a forecaster) was by realizing that "I am not lucky." Not good lucky, not bad lucky. There's chance, of course... but not luck. I'm no more or less likely than anyone else to win at the casino. I'd like to buy low and sell high, but my hopes/dreams/fears will have nothing to do with the outcome.
It sounds cold, I know, but it's a liberating realization.