Google crisis response for Thai floods

A major issue in river forecasting is that typically measurements and forecasts are given at individual locations along certain rivers. For example, I used to make forecasts of "The Animas River at Durango". If you lived anywhere on the Animas besides Durango, you would have to figure out some way to translate the information to what it meant for your specific place (e.g. "817 Lower Canyon Road"). Similarly, a flood height forecast for a specific point (e.g. "the river should reach 18.1 meters at the Lincoln street bridge") might not be that informative to you about the possibility that your house will be underwater (or by how much).

For many years, scientists, forecasters and users have wanted better ways to capture the 3-dimensional behavior of floods. The Flood Observatory takes images from satellites and tries to figure out what areas are currently under water (that normally aren't). Here's their latest image.

The red areas are those that have been underwater sometime in the last 6 days. The dark green at the bottom is urban areas, most notably Bangkok.

Zoom in a bit closer and you get a fuller appreciation of what they mean when they say that the city is surrounded by an impending floodwave. To give an idea of scale, the large red blob to the north is about 60 miles/100 km wide. 

Google has put up an interesting webpage gathering information about the latest floods threatening Bangkok...They've taken some of this flood extent information and put it in Google Maps. The red ares are those under water.

The resolution goes down to individual neighborhoods. Each square is 100 meters ~ 250 feet on a side. 

Google has then combined this information with many other sources, such as the locations of parking lots (to save your car), evacuation shelters, places to make donations. There are also some forecasts. For example this map: 

shows the currently flooded areas in the "smokey" red/gray background, as before. The blue squiggles are the major rivers. The red squiggles are Bangkok's flood walls and defense barriers. The deep red shapes outside the city are those in the greatest danger, the yellow squares less danger and white has no current warnings. The blue markers are important threatened structures, such as airports, monuments and so on.  

Bangkok flood chasing

Yesterday we arrived in Bangkok as the flood waters were rising. After heaps of rain, a colossal flood wave has surrounded the city and is threatening it from nearly every direction on its last stop before the ocean. 
There are many stories on the news about it 


"Bangkok braces as flood barrier fails"
"Bangkok fighting losing battle against floods"


This story includes an opinion poll about how well the flood warning system is doing:

Furthermore, according to a recent public opinion poll conducted by Abac Poll, the public gave a rating of 3.4 out of 10 on the overall performance of the government’s Flood Relief Operation Centre in disseminating flood information to public.

Additionally, 87% of the respondents considered flood information and news from the centre unreliable, while 86% felt the centre had not provided clear information.

Further, the government's flood early warning system was rated at only 3.1 out of 10, according to the polls.

The public's frustration came amid claims that, in some cases, factories and the public were told to evacuate only when flood waters had already reached their doorsteps.

Early this morning we had a stimulating conversation with S.H.M Fakhruddin, the lead hydrologist of a pan-Asian forecasting center called RIMES (Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System). He knew a lot about the forecasting systems here and some of the challenges of implementing new systems. Two themes of the conversation that particularly resonated with me were the communication of uncertain information and the challenge of forecasting in a politically complex environment. Was he being impacted by the floods? His center is shut down because it is surrounded by water so he has to temporarily work from his car. I hope we'll hear more from Dr Fakhruddin but for now he had to catch a flight.

We also walked around the metropolitan downtown region where some of the businesses were sandbagged, others weren't. When we talked to some business owners there was a sense that the flood threat had passed and there wasn't much need to worry. 

Double ring of sandbags at a bank

Then we took the ferry up the main river and the ferry terminal itself was underwater. The river appears completely full up to the lip of the flood walls. 

Boat terminal sandbags

The very long and tall line of sandbags in the foreground doesn't show up well... Look near the top of the foreground fences

Some people like to get their hands dirty...
I like to get my feet wet. 

When we got off the ferry, we noticed that some business owners had replaced sandbags with temporary brick walls around their entrances. The hotel itself has lines of sandbags going through the lobby and has moved the valuables to the second floor. Apparently there are contingency plans to move us to another hotel if we are flooded. 

Sturdier flood wall

I will say one good thing though about Bangkok -- extremely fast internet. After being internet starved for nearly two months now, the speeds are about twice as fast as what I would get in Melbourne.

Also, the first drink I grabbed when I got off the plane was a bottle of "ENSO"...That's an inside joke to climate forecasters. ENSO is the El Nino Southern Oscillation and it describes how the ocean and air in the Pacific behave to affect the weather in other parts of the world.

Manila hydrologists in the heat of battle (part 2)

Here's roughly how the total forecast process worked when I was there during emergency operations in anticipation of Typhoon Quiel.


There is a meeting in the weather forecasting room between the meteorologists and the lead hydrologist. The meteorologists figure out the path of the eye of the typhoon and the storm's wind speed. The public storm warning signals (much like the US's "category 3, category 4" storm system) are only based on wind speed.

The hydrologist (left, Heraclio Borja) in the den of meteorologists

However, the hydrologist is mostly interested in how much rainfall and when? Somewhat frustratingly, meteorologists talk about time of landfall and peak rainfall rate (e.g. 15 mm per hour). It can be hard for the hydrologist to convert this to total rainfall depth (e.g. 105 mm in the next 12 hours). It's a bit like trying to figure out your annual salary from just knowing that you'll earn the most (~$1000/month) around March. What if you earn nothing for 6 months of the year?

The hydrologist goes across the hall to the flood forecasting center where banks of computers monitor data across the country. 

The Manila office's main concern is monitoring the levels of 10 nearby dams. The hydrologists discuss the situation and try and figure out the implications of the rainfall forecasts for the rivers. More on this later and in other posts... for now we'll just say "And then the magic happens".  

PAGASA hydrologists discussing situation

While the river forecasters were trying to do their analyses, the phones were ringing off the hook. 

The phone at the flood desk, literally off the hook.

Currently, Manila's public river forecasts (on their webpage) come in three types that translate into something like flooding is "possible", "likely" and "imminent" (or it's already occurring). Occasionally there are statements about how the river is expected to continue to rise or fall. I didn't personally see any quantitative forecasts for Manila like "the river will crest at 18.2 meters at 9 pm".  

After writing up some text, there might be some additional discussion with the meteorologists to make sure everyone is on the same page.The hydrologists then literally sign off on the products...  

 The products are distributed on the web and by fax to various agencies. Then the press conference begins.  

There's a discussion of recent rainfall, current flooding, forecast rainfall, dam levels and possible future flooding. The briefings are a mix of Tagalog and English, the two official languages of the Philippines. Indeed, individual sentences are often a mix of both (called Tag-lish), weaving in and out of English. I'd catch the occasional phrase like "serious consequences" or "pretty close".  

There's a few televised questions from reporters and then afterwards the media might try and grab a one-on-one followup with the forecasters as they head back to the office.

The media briefing process repeated every six hours. During the time I was there though, the staff stayed late in to the night checking the status of the dams every hour because they were in emergency mode.  Normally it is much more relaxed and there are not as many people working at the same time. 

I was very lucky to be there at this time, both in the sense that Typhoons only strike a couple times a year, and that PAGASA allowed me inside during such a busy time. 

Manila hydrologists in the heat of battle (part 1)

Last week the 3rd costliest Typhoon in Filipino history struck and another was about to track over the same area of the Philippines. I stopped in at the national weather/flood headquarters in Manila to see how things were going and got a chance to see operational hydrologists at work.  

Of course, the first typhoon (Pedring, known internationally as Nesat) was all over the news. Water invaded parts of Metro Manila including the US embassy... 

US Embassy under water (Source)

Considering that Manila is so security conscious that even the local pharmacies have shotgun-wielding guards, just imagine the frenzy this must have caused. The TV had full-time live coverage including, among other things, waves crashing over the top of palm trees. 

This was on the two year anniversary of another legendary typhoon in 2009 (Ondoy aka Ketsana) that wrecked Manila. With 80% of the city under water, it was described as a "once-in-a-lifetime" flood, and there was some criticism that there wasn't enough warning). A couple days after the 2009 storm, another typhoon struck (Pepeng aka Parma). Despite Ondoy being seared into local memory, it was this second storm that holds the record for costliest typhoon in Filipino history. Manila was largely spared but the rest of the north island was totally creamed. 

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) makes weather, climate and river forecasts and follows current conditions. There are field offices that make forecasts in some places, but it's all funneled through the Manila (Quezon City) headquarters.

When I got to PAGASA's office, a large tree had been uprooted in their front yard. The forecasters would have had to pass by it on their way in and out of work.

The lobby of the headquarters was stuffed with lights, cameras, soundboards and rivers of thick black cables. Even though Pedring had come and gone, the media was making its own forecast by leaving the gear in place in case the next typhoon (Quiel, aka Nalgae) was going to be big news. The anchor men and women swept in and out of the scene whenever there were press conferences. The media technicians stayed around-the-clock, often nodding off in the plastic lawn chairs in the oppressive heat.

Or watching youtube videos

The contrast between awkward silent geeks attending on impossibly beautiful hosts felt like I was channeling a teenage dream.  

So, to recap, 2009, consecutive typhoons, both causing incredible damage. The first hit Manila and the second passed to the north. Then this year, consecutive typhoons, the first hitting Manila and the second was forecast to... to do what?

Before you say "pass to the north" consider that in 2010, Typhoon Basyang (Conson) was forecast to do just that and instead rolled through Manila by surprise. I plotted the forecast one day before landfall in 2010 compared to the actual storm track. There was a forecast range of possibilities, but the observed was outside even that.

What happened last year

The president gave PAGASA's chief a public tongue-lashing, then demoted him and eventually he resigned.

Tense enough yet?

Waiting for Quiel in Manila

As the typhoon passed through Manila we decided to drive around and see high water. Note to self, the radio network for taxi cabs is a great way of asking which places are having urban flooding. Marikina City probably had the biggest waters in the city because it is just above the floodway that diverts high flows to the inland lake. A mall's basement went underwater as well as a few parks. People were wading through water along a bridge. 

Last night, a second typhoon was expected to make landfall in the same place as the first. Here was the image at 5 am, from PAGASA (the national weather service). There's always an excitable awe when the first images of a well-defined storm eye arrive at the forecasters.  

 I was able to get down to the flood warning center and camped out until midnight, going between the flood forecasting area and the media center in the lobby. It's exciting for me to be embedded with forecasters during an actual flood event and hope to tell more later (the event is still going on).  

The atmosphere at the office last night reminded me of waiting at a hospital for a patient to come back from surgery. Lots of people waiting (such as camera crews for the media, or other assistants) with a sense of tense boredom, pacing, staring at the ceiling, clicking away on their mobiles. I wondered if it was worth it to bug the "nurses" for new information or if we just needed to wait for the next release. Like an emergency room, there is no window in to see the patient, only the occasional reporting of vital signs. Even these required some interpretation ("the hemoglobin levels are 8.0"... "7 gates of the dam are open"... is this good/bad/unusual?)   

In a sudden burst, a "doctor" would charge through with others in tow and the room would have to be cleared for an important meeting. With all the authority of a doctor, the undersecretary of the weather service (Yumul) thundered at a press briefing when asked "What's the worst case scenario?" -- “(The) worst case scenario is people will die if people will not heed (the warnings of) local authorities.” 

Next press briefing is in 10 minutes, for now we're still in limbo. 

Typhoon Nesat in Manila

It's not every day that you wake up and the weather forecast is for "broken trees".

We arrived in Manila, Philippines last night to horizontal blowing rain. On the ride to the hotel, some of the streets were flooded. A Typhoon is bearing down on the northern Philippines. The headline of the newspaper was "100,000 People Evacuated" as it made landfall this morning. This is happening on the two year anniversary of another Typhoon that killed more than 500 people and put 80% of Manila under water. It must feel strange to be unveiling memorial statues in stormy weather.

Satellite image from 20 minutes ago (9 am local time) from PAGASA

Here, the winds aren't terribly strong (the trees are bending a bit less than in the icon above), but the rain continued all last night. Against the background of the skyscrapers, the white bands of rain look like a sheer curtain blowing in an open window. The lights have been flickering on and off.

The sense of anticipation is palpable. School was cancelled and government workers stayed home today. I've been hitting refresh on the government's forecast website (PAGASA) every couple minutes (the last update was due at 9 am... another version). Their facebook and twitter feeds have been fairly active. There agency also has some good background information on how flood forecasts are prepared.

Of course, it'll take some time before the rain causes the rivers to rise. How high will the rivers get? It seems we'll find out soon enough...

Hydrologic oddities: The foul creek from the Black Cave (Gomantong Caves, Malaysia)

Imagine that you are a psychologist designing an immersion exercise for someone with a set of phobias. Maybe the patient is afraid of nasty things, dark spaces, bugs, bats, and so on. It needs to be a dank, foul place, where the walls are alive; creepy-crawlies can drop off the ceiling anytime... Let’s run a small creek through it, just for good measure. 

Welcome to the Gomantong Caves in northeast Borneo! 

The view of cave entrance, looking out

When you hear about "Bird's nest soup", this is where the nests come from. Birds (swiftlets) make nests out of spit on the roof and the sides of the cave. People climb hours, 90 meters high with ropes and bamboo ladders (Health and Safety would seriously disapprove). This is the “Black Cave” (Simud Hitam) named because its nests are not as clean as the more valuable nests from the harder to access but larger "White Cave" (Simud Putih). 


Honestly, I have to wonder who was the first person to climb to the top of a cave to harvest a spit-nest and put it in soup. What are all the other things they experimented with along the way but gave up on? It's a bit like Fugu ovaries... They're the most poisonous part of a fish that can kill you on eating it. However, someone figured out that you can ferment the ovaries for 3 years and then there is a chance you might not die. 


Really, who is the unfortunate person who waited only 1 year to figure out that was not long enough? Worse yet, who were his friends who decided to wait longer and give it another go?  

On the way to the cave there is the typical wild-monkey-in-a-tree (Presbytis rubicunda)

So, in the cave are also bats... literally millions of bats. The birds and their bats do their business and poop on the floor. Untold centuries of poop forms the spongy bed of the creek that snakes its way through the cave. The smell is like a punch in the nose.

I tell you, it's really hard to photograph in a cave. Note, bat poo (foreground, background).

Excrement is full of nutrients and so you would imagine someone would be taking advantage of this incredible biological opportunity. Shine a light on the wall or the floor and you'll see...

... wriggling centipedes and an unfathomable mass of cockroaches. The boardwalk is steep and slippery so be sure to hold on to the handrail...

The handrail. Seriously. Grab on and potentially touch a roach or risk falling into a catastrophic failure. 

To give you a sense of how rank it is, the cave's creek (right) fouls the normal river (left) as they join.

The Gomantong Caves happen because limestone is easily dissolved by the water flowing through it. When a landscape has much limestone, it is called Karst. It's why some streams disappear in a hole only to pop out of a cave somewhere else.

Imagine how the center of a log rots out before the bark, leaving it with random little holes, tunnels, and other hollows. The cross section of, say, a live pine tree is pretty simple and easy to describe, but who knows what it looks like inside a rotten log. Similarly, "holey" limestone is one of the most difficult landscapes to model in hydrology. On our search for "hydrologic monsters", we'll likely spend a lot of time near Karst.

By the way, the birds nests are so valuable that the cave is heavily guarded by the government. In the back of the cave there is a place for the guards to sleep. It's a terrible job, poisonous snakes and centipedes have been known to bite them and cockroaches eat at their skin when they sleep. At least there's a cave cat (the glowing eyes in the center right of the below picture) that keeps them company (while feasting on birds). 

I think this counts as a zero-star accommodations

In the Shadow of the East Floodway

Closer in to Jakarta, the rivers take on an ominous color. The water is black, bubbling, filled with trash and liquid horrors, the smell is overpowering. Although the main channel is usually black, the occasional backwater canal will bloom with algae. One lake we saw had floating islands of cornflower-blue colored scum.

There were places where the river went beyond black and developed white patches. Quite literally this was "white discharge", the same phrase you would use for a wound that has taken a turn for the worse and is weeping pus.

I imagine that this is what the Rivers of Hell look like. Know that my father was a Roman Catholic minister and I thought of Hell much more than any 10-year old probably should have. So, Hell is not a term I toss around lightly. If you are not religious, imagine The Bog of Infernal Stench or something from Lord of the Rings. 



As a hydrologist (but not a water quality specialist I will admit), what is all the more disturbing is that poisoned water does not necessarily look or smell bad. This mostly looks bad because of the human waste, but who knows what the industrial rivers look like. 


We visited the head of the East Flood Canal, a recently completed $500 million works project to prevent Jakarta from flooding. The canal is a protective quarter-ring around the southeast of the city, intercepting rivers and diverting floods out to to the ocean. 


As we stepped out of the van on the side of the canal opposite the College of Transportation (STMT Trisakti) someone asked "Is that a person down there?" 

Indeed, one of the trash pickers was swimming in the river, putting trash on a raft. For the interested, here is a good interview with one of these "river janitors".

The white foaming is likely from household detergents. Below is a closer picture of the cleanup along the trash racks. The rake is the cage of a fan, tied to a bamboo pole. 

For reference, "river janitors" like these make about $650 per year, compared to about $2000 per year for river gate operators (Indonesian median income is about $3000).

A small village of tin sheds now sits where the canal meets the old river flowing down its natural channel. Here is a house put up against a gate under construction. Eventually this will have to go away when the gate is completed. 

When we arrived, a group of boys were splashing and playing in the river within sight of a latrine.

The arrival of visitors caused a stir and all the kids came out to meet us and play games. All the girls had pink somewhere in their outfits...

And the boys liked climbing in trees and playing with toy guns. 

We found an old woman that had lived in the village for 30 years. She said the last time they were flooded was 2007.

Why did she come back if there was flood danger? She said that rent around here was $11-$30 per month, the cheapest in the city, and she could not afford to live elsewhere. They made money harvesting the recycling from the river and selling food and such. As we talked, she stroked her hand on a stain along the edge of her doorway... the patina of the stain probably came from decades of doorway conversations.

(click to enlarge)

One of the good things about the village was that they had a well that provided clean water. The pump was held together with wire and ribbons: 

Next to the pump was the community toilet, a tent of blankets on a platform extending out over the river.

Others adults had started to gather around and listen to our conversation. We asked a young couple about if they were worried for their health, living so close to the river. Not really... If they got sick, they went to the government doctors and got care. 

(click to enlarge)

Are you happy people? Optimistic? The translator laughed and offered that this was a personal question, but he'll try. --Sure we're happy. We're at home here.

What was the best day you had this year? By this time practically all the ladies from the village had come out and were listening. One woman strolling through offered her thoughts and evoked a laughing "oh you're a rascal!"-type response from the crowd. 


The rough translation was "They are happy when the flood occurs. Of course they were sad because they couldn't go to their homes, but the flood is the only time anyone cares about them and tries to help them" 

By this time, the call to prayer had begun and we had to move on to the site where a collapsed dam recently cut of part off the city's water for days.